#9 - Although video game sales have increased steadily...

[Nikki Siclunov]

Complete Question Explanation

Question #9: Weaken, #%. The correct answer choice is (E)

The stimulus is structured as follows:

• Premise (1): Historically, over three quarters of video games sold have been purchased by 13-16 year olds.
  Premise (2): The number of 13-16 year olds is expected to decline.
  
  Conclusion: We can expect video game sales to decrease.

The author exhibits a rather pessimistic view about the future prospects of video games. Why? Because most video games are historically purchased by a subset of consumers whose numbers are expected to decline. This line of reasoning is commits a Time Shift Error: past performance does not guarantee future results (just read the small print in any investment brochure!). Just because there will be fewer teenagers buying video games doesn't mean that some other demographic group - perhaps newly retired baby boomers - won't take over as the driving force behind video games sales. Furthermore, just because there are fewer people buying games doesn't mean there will be fewer games being sold: maybe the few remaining teenagers will be hardcore gamers who each buy hundreds of video games every year. We are looking for an answer choice indicating that the author's pessimism is unwarranted.

Answer choice (A) is the Opposite answer, as it strengthens the argument by suggesting that video game sales are indeed limited to younger teenagers.

Answer choice (B) introduces an irrelevant consideration (rentals). The relationship between rentals and sales is unknown.

Answer choice (C) is attractive, but incorrect. The fact that some new technology makes entirely new entertainment options available can be interpreted in several ways: if the entertainment options displace video gaming, then the video game sales will indeed drop (which strengthens the author's argument). However, perhaps the new technology will also help create a whole new genre of video games (virtual reality?), potentially boosting sales. Ultimately, the implications of this answer choice are unknown.

Answer choice (D) suggests that there will probably be just as many types of video games in the future as there are today. How does the variety of game types affect sales? Once again, the implications of this answer choice are left unclear.

Answer choice (E) is the correct answer choice. If older adults are responsible for most of the recent video game sales, then the historical trend upon which the author made his prediction seems to have changed. Recent events have a higher predictive validity than what happens "historically," which is why answer choice (E) works so well: if true, we have a reason to be optimistic about video game sales in the future.

The question tests your ability to recognize historical occurrences as having a relatively low predictive validity. It is also a rare instance of a Weaken question in which the correct answer choice attacks a premise directly. Although it is still the case that, historically, 75%+ of video games sold have been purchased by 13-16 year olds, answer choice (E) suggests that this pattern has recently changed.