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- Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:32 am
#40954
Complete Question Explanation
Method of Reasoning, SN. The correct answer choice is (A).
The author concludes that the contract will almost certainly be awarded to Phoenix, because it has decided not to award it to the only alternative contender, Cartwright. The relationship between the premises and the conclusion is conditional and can be diagrammed as follows:
The conclusion is easy to spot thanks to the conclusion indicator “therefore” in the last sentence. Note a peculiarity in the language that you can use to your advantage when attacking the answer choices: the phrase “almost certainly” appears just before the necessary condition in the first sentence, and a similar phrase (“virtually certain”) is used to qualify the conclusion. This makes sense, because both phrases convey a high likelihood of something happening, but make the conditional relationship less than absolute. So when one of two highly probable events ruled out, it is reasonable to conclude that the other event is “virtually certain” to occur.
The Method question stem requires you to select an answer choice that best describes the logical organization of the argument. This is simply an abstract Must Be True question, in which you can use the information in the stimulus to prove the correct answer choice. Because the argument will be described in abstract terms, knowing the details of the stimulus is not nearly as important as understanding the structure of the argument. The correct answer will probably not mention awarding government contracts or building a new highway. Instead, it will describe an argument in which a particular event is deemed highly likely to occur, because the only probable alternative cannot occur. This prephrase reveals Answer choice (A) to be correct.
Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. The author concludes that it is extremely likely (“virtually certain”) that an event will occur (“Phoenix will be awarded the contract”) by ruling out the only probable alternative (“the government has decided not to award the contract to Cartwright”).
Note that since there are many variations on the way an argument can be described, you may have prephrased an answer that uses different language. For instance:
Answer choice (B): This is a Reverse answer. This answer choice would be attractive if you misunderstood the relationship between the premises and the conclusion. The author does not infer, from a claim that one of two possible events will occur, that the other event will not occur. On the contrary—she infers, from a claim that one of two possible events will not occur, that the other event will occur.
Answer choice (C): This is an Opposite answer. The author does not refute that awarding the contract to Phoenix is inevitable by establishing the possibility of awarding it to Cartwright. On the contrary—she establishes that the contract will be awarded to Phoenix by refuting the possibility of awarding it to Cartwright.
Answer choice (D): This is a classic half-right, half-wrong answer choice. Even though the author does predict a future event, her prediction is not based on an established pattern of past events. Because the second half of this answer choice fails the Fact Test, it is incorrect.
Answer choice (E): This is another half-right, half-wrong answer choice. Although the author does infer a claim about the probability of awarding the contract to Phoenix, her conclusion is not based on a general statistic statement (such as, “Phoenix is awarded more contracts per year than any other company”). Because the second half of this answer choice fails the Fact Test, it is incorrect.
Method of Reasoning, SN. The correct answer choice is (A).
The author concludes that the contract will almost certainly be awarded to Phoenix, because it has decided not to award it to the only alternative contender, Cartwright. The relationship between the premises and the conclusion is conditional and can be diagrammed as follows:
The conclusion is easy to spot thanks to the conclusion indicator “therefore” in the last sentence. Note a peculiarity in the language that you can use to your advantage when attacking the answer choices: the phrase “almost certainly” appears just before the necessary condition in the first sentence, and a similar phrase (“virtually certain”) is used to qualify the conclusion. This makes sense, because both phrases convey a high likelihood of something happening, but make the conditional relationship less than absolute. So when one of two highly probable events ruled out, it is reasonable to conclude that the other event is “virtually certain” to occur.
The Method question stem requires you to select an answer choice that best describes the logical organization of the argument. This is simply an abstract Must Be True question, in which you can use the information in the stimulus to prove the correct answer choice. Because the argument will be described in abstract terms, knowing the details of the stimulus is not nearly as important as understanding the structure of the argument. The correct answer will probably not mention awarding government contracts or building a new highway. Instead, it will describe an argument in which a particular event is deemed highly likely to occur, because the only probable alternative cannot occur. This prephrase reveals Answer choice (A) to be correct.
Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. The author concludes that it is extremely likely (“virtually certain”) that an event will occur (“Phoenix will be awarded the contract”) by ruling out the only probable alternative (“the government has decided not to award the contract to Cartwright”).
Note that since there are many variations on the way an argument can be described, you may have prephrased an answer that uses different language. For instance:
- The argument proceeds by inferring, from a claim that one of two possible events will not occur, that the other event is highly likely to occur.
The argument proceeds by predicting that a future event is likely to occur because the only viable alternative cannot occur.
The argument proceeds by inferring that one of two events is virtually inevitable by refuting the possibility of an alternative event.
Answer choice (B): This is a Reverse answer. This answer choice would be attractive if you misunderstood the relationship between the premises and the conclusion. The author does not infer, from a claim that one of two possible events will occur, that the other event will not occur. On the contrary—she infers, from a claim that one of two possible events will not occur, that the other event will occur.
Answer choice (C): This is an Opposite answer. The author does not refute that awarding the contract to Phoenix is inevitable by establishing the possibility of awarding it to Cartwright. On the contrary—she establishes that the contract will be awarded to Phoenix by refuting the possibility of awarding it to Cartwright.
Answer choice (D): This is a classic half-right, half-wrong answer choice. Even though the author does predict a future event, her prediction is not based on an established pattern of past events. Because the second half of this answer choice fails the Fact Test, it is incorrect.
Answer choice (E): This is another half-right, half-wrong answer choice. Although the author does infer a claim about the probability of awarding the contract to Phoenix, her conclusion is not based on a general statistic statement (such as, “Phoenix is awarded more contracts per year than any other company”). Because the second half of this answer choice fails the Fact Test, it is incorrect.
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