- PowerScore Staff
- Posts: 8950
- Joined: Feb 02, 2011
- Tue May 03, 2016 9:55 am
#23831
Complete Question Explanation
Resolve the Paradox. The correct answer choice is (C)
Even though the polling survey predicted that Landon would defeat Roosevelt, Roosevelt won. To explain why the prediction was inaccurate, the correct answer must either attack the validity of the survey, or introduce an element that the survey could not have taken into account. For instance, if the Roosevelt supporters were more likely to vote (perhaps they thought the election centered on important issues), this would explain why the poll predicted inaccurate results. Likewise, if the survey was biased or based on an unrepresentative sample, its predictions cannot be taken seriously.
Answer choice (A): The fact that interviewers did not reveal their own political affiliation to the responders can only strengthen the validity of the study, because it offers further evidence that the survey was not biased. Because this answer choice does not explain the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, it is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): At first, this may seem like an attractive answer. If the survey sample was not representative of the overall U.S. population, wouldn’t that explain why its results were inaccurate? Perhaps, but only if a significantly large group of voters obtained the right to vote after the completion of the survey but before the actual election. Since there is no indication that the composition of the voters qualified to vote changed significantly during that time, and we are only interested in people who are qualified to vote (not the overall U.S. population), this answer choice fails to explain the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, and is therefore incorrect.
Answer choice (C): This is the correct answer choice. If only the wealthy could afford telephones, then the survey sample was biased and unrepresentative of the voting population. Because this answer choice explains the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, it is correct.
Answer choice (D): There is no reason to suspect the survey needed to determine the respondents’ political affiliation. We are only interested in who people plan to vote for, not what their political affiliation is. This answer choice introduces an irrelevant consideration and is therefore incorrect.
Answer choice (E): We are only interested in who people plan to vote for, not what the reasons for their choice are. This answer choice introduces an irrelevant consideration and is therefore incorrect.
Resolve the Paradox. The correct answer choice is (C)
Even though the polling survey predicted that Landon would defeat Roosevelt, Roosevelt won. To explain why the prediction was inaccurate, the correct answer must either attack the validity of the survey, or introduce an element that the survey could not have taken into account. For instance, if the Roosevelt supporters were more likely to vote (perhaps they thought the election centered on important issues), this would explain why the poll predicted inaccurate results. Likewise, if the survey was biased or based on an unrepresentative sample, its predictions cannot be taken seriously.
Answer choice (A): The fact that interviewers did not reveal their own political affiliation to the responders can only strengthen the validity of the study, because it offers further evidence that the survey was not biased. Because this answer choice does not explain the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, it is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): At first, this may seem like an attractive answer. If the survey sample was not representative of the overall U.S. population, wouldn’t that explain why its results were inaccurate? Perhaps, but only if a significantly large group of voters obtained the right to vote after the completion of the survey but before the actual election. Since there is no indication that the composition of the voters qualified to vote changed significantly during that time, and we are only interested in people who are qualified to vote (not the overall U.S. population), this answer choice fails to explain the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, and is therefore incorrect.
Answer choice (C): This is the correct answer choice. If only the wealthy could afford telephones, then the survey sample was biased and unrepresentative of the voting population. Because this answer choice explains the discrepancy between the predicted and the actual outcome of the election, it is correct.
Answer choice (D): There is no reason to suspect the survey needed to determine the respondents’ political affiliation. We are only interested in who people plan to vote for, not what their political affiliation is. This answer choice introduces an irrelevant consideration and is therefore incorrect.
Answer choice (E): We are only interested in who people plan to vote for, not what the reasons for their choice are. This answer choice introduces an irrelevant consideration and is therefore incorrect.
Since this survey aimed to figure out how voters would cast their votes on Election Day, it was perfectly reasonable for the survey to limit its respondents to people who were actually eligible to vote. Including non-voters in the survey would have undermined the accuracy of the poll.