- Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:04 pm
#111125
Hi Dshen123!
Let's break down our stimulus:
Premise 1: Patient is suffering from disease X, or disease Y
Premise 2: There are no tests that can distinguish disease X from disease Y
Conclusion: Since there is an effective treatment for disease Y, and no treatment for disease X, we must act on the assumption that the patient is suffering from disease Y
Now, let's think about prephrasing our answer choice-- why, based on these premises, should we act on the assumption that the patient is suffering from disease Y (and thus presumably treat the patient for disease Y)?
Answer Choice E states that: "when only one strategy carries the possibility of success, circumstances must as much as possible be changed to fit this strategy."
This doesn't quite work for us, as we cannot change any of the circumstances with which we are presented. Here, we can consider our "circumstances" to be what disease our patient has. Answer Choice E is wrong because we cannot change our basic circumstances (i.e. what disease the patient actually suffers from), we can only change our subsequent course of action.
Answer Choice D states that: "When success is only possible if a circumstance beyond one's control is favorable, then one's strategy must be based on the assumption that this circumstance is, in fact, favorable."
This matches our premise much better! Our circumstances are favorable if our patient does, in fact, have disease Y, because we have an effective treatment for disease Y, and can thus cure our patient. Let's take a look at our potential choices:
1) Our patient has disease X (unfavorable), and we do not treat the patient for disease Y (unsuccessful)
2) Our patient has disease Y (favorable), and we do not treat the patient for disease Y (unsuccessful)
3) Our patient has disease X (unfavorable), and we treat the patient for disease Y (unsuccessful)
4) Our patient has disease Y (favorable), and we treat the patient for disease Y (successful)
We can see that our only option for success is if we act as though our circumstances are favorable. If we do treat the patient for disease Y, it's a 50/50 outcome for whether or not they are cured. If we do not treat the patient for disease Y, no matter what, they will not be cured.
I hope this helps!
