Feeling discouraged by this cycle already. Any thoughts?

[Johnny21]

Hi everyone,

I started applying to schools this cycle, and I feel concerned because nearly every school raised its median. I could've gotten into a few T14/T20 schools last year and the year before, possibly with some scholarship money, but now I have a "coin toss" chance at getting a single T25 acceptance.

Does the rise in medians necessarily mean that my chances of admission are now lower? My gpa is between 25-50 for most schools, and I have a 167 LSAT. I chose the wrong time to apply Still can't believe that places like NDLS/BU/USC are up to 167, same as what Gtown/Cornell had just two years ago.

If anyone has insights on what the rise in medians indicates, I'd be happy to hear your thoughts. I always thought that the median is more of a statement of fact than it is an estimate of someone's chances of admission, i.e. "here's what the entering class looks like for this year" versus "here's the minimum score we want from you" distinction.

[Jeremy Press]

Hi Johnny,

It's definitely important to go into the admissions game with a "hard-headed"/realistic view of your chances. A general rise in LSAT medians from 2019 to 2020 is, based on data like these (https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2020-medians/), real and could have an impact on chances of admission. The question, of course, is whether this rise will persist from last admissions cycle to this one. I don't know that we have perfect evidence yet on how that will play out, but it does seem from LSAT data that things aren't much different in terms of volume of LSAT takers.

How much of an impact that slight change in medians will have on your personal chances of admissions does depend heavily, as you've noticed, on where your score stands in relation to an individual school's median. The median is a critical number for schools, because it's the number that's factored into the schools' U.S. News rankings. Do you have a chance if you're in striking distance (within a point or two) of a school's median? Sure. Does your chance of admission drop with each point you are below that school's median? Yes. You can see that pretty clearly from the graphs posted here: http://lawschoolnumbers.com/. As one example, Georgetown (during this past cycle) saw a pretty significant change in outcomes between applicants with a 167 and applicants with a 168 (lots more "green dots" at the 168 than at the 167 level): http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1920. That's reflective of just how much their median means to them. This is true of virtually all schools in the top 25.

Be realistic, apply to some "target" schools where you're hitting the medians, but also include some "reach" schools in your list where you're not hitting the medians. And consider whether a retake at some point in the cycle could help you. The difference between a 167 and 168 could be crucial this cycle for getting into the T14 versus not getting into the T14 (as you can see from the Georgetown or Cornell data on lawschoolnumbers).

Let us know if this triggers further questions, and best of luck in the upcoming cycle!