T14 chances

[Jleon25]

Hello staff,
I am hoping Dave Killoran can answer these questions for me. I am writing to ask for his opinion and other staff members as well on my situation. My dream school is Duke University. I just received my lsat score of a 164. I am sort of disappointed since I was averaging 166-167. I really do not want to take the test again because I do not have time to study for it. I took off work to study for 6 months and have accumulated a lot of credit card debt.

So, my question is do I have a shot at Duke if I E.D?
I read the Powerscore blog regarding Spivey Consulants on splitters and reverse splitters.
Am I at a serious risk of not getting accepted by any T14 schools???

I have a 3.93 gpa from a small unknown university in Louisiana, came from a really bad socieoeconomic background, average softs, and am a male 22 year old Caucasian.

Thanks for your time!
Jacob

[Dave Killoran]

Hey Jacob,

Thanks for the message! First, congrats on the 164. I realize that is lower than you were hoping for, but it is still an awesome score in its own right.

Duke is a great school, and it is where I went for undergrad so I have a lot of knowledge about the school as a whole. As a regular applicant, you would be just below the stats of the students they like to take (166-167 seems to be about where they like to start accepting applicants, which I'm sure annoys the heck out of you since that's where you were scoring). Probably with your current numbers, you would make the waitlist before outright acceptance. However, if Duke is your #1 school, then the ED route will help. Duke one of the schools that gives you a solid boost for applying ED, and it might be enough to take you over the top. "Might" is the operating word there—there are no guarantees in this process.

As for the rest of the Top 14, I think you do have a shot. You are better positioned for admission at law schools like Georgetown, for example, just because your numbers are slightly more appealing. The rest of your application will affect those chances too, of course. You mentioned having a pretty standard background. What you need to do is really nail your personal statement. It's going have to be not just bulletproof, but strongly compelling in order to overcome the slight LSAT score issue. Based on the time and effort you put into LSAT prep (6 months off is pretty impressive!), however, you clearly have the drive and work ethic to do it. I'd spend a lot of time there, and the two best pieces of advice I can give are:

• 1. Check out the free seminar I did on the personal statement. It's available instantly, and can be found at http://www.powerscore.com/lsat/help/#free-lessons, as the sixth link under "Recorded/Archived Lessons." That seminar covers a number of important elements that everyone should consider when putting together a personal statement, as well as a number of tips I've collected over the years. I also use examples to support the advice I give in there, and viewing that seminar is often really helpful for applicants.
  
  2. Re-draft your statement repeatedly. The biggest mistake students make is only drafting it two or three times. It really shows in a bad way. the proper process is to draft it, then read it instantly and make changes. Take two-three days off, and then come back to it and re-read it closely, and then make changes again. the repeat that process as many times as you can stand it One of the big mistakes students make is getting suggestions, quickly making changes, and then not waiting a few days before picking it up and reading it again. and, if there's time to take a week off between reads, that's even better. It gives you more distance and better perspective on what you've written, and how that will sound to other readers.

Please let me know if that helps. Thanks!


Thanks!

[Jleon25]

Hello Dave,

Thank you very much for your time and help! I know the first few days after score releases might be extremely busy for you all. Fortunately, I have already viewed the seminar and edited my personal statement at least 4 or 5 times since October 4th (day after the LSAT). A few days ago, I bought the Evaluation and Critique package from PowerScore; I just sent my personal statement yesterday to be evaluated.

Not too drag this post out, but I just wanted to ask if you could specify what you meant by "might" regarding my E.D. acceptance into Duke. Thus, am I looking at a 10-15% chance of acceptance or 50%. I am sort of clueless. I have looked at mylsn, and that sight shows me virtually having no chance. However, I am hoping those figures do not include E.D. students.

Last question, do you think I would be better off applying E.D. to UVA? UVA is my second choice and it appears as if the early decision really boosts reverse splitters' chances after reading the Spivey Consulting article. It shows UVA 61 times more likely to accept reverse splitters when they E.D. compared to applicants with the same numbers who do not E.D.

I know these are tough questions, but any advice and time is greatly appreciated. I really do not want to end up having to attend a school not named UVA or Duke. So, I am trying to take the best and safest strategy possible.

Thanks again!
Jacob L.

[Dave Killoran]

Hi Jacob,

Unfortunately, that's not a question I can answer with any certainty, hence my use of qualifiers like "might"

One thing to remember about LSN (a site I really like, by the way) is that if you are using the current charts, they are only partial. Look at the graphs from prior years to get a more complete (but still incomplete) overview. What your numbers say is that Duke is a reach—definitely less than 50%, maybe 10%, and in replying to you I factored in the ED boost. And we do know that ED will increase your chances. How much? I don't know but I will tell you that the numbers on ED are bit exaggerated (If you were, for example, 61 times more likely to get in to UVA, if you think about that for a second, it means that almost everyone who had even a 2% chance by RD was accepted when they applied ED. So, I always take those numbers with a grain of salt. And yes, I understand that many splitters start with really low chances at these schools).

What I know is that both Duke and UVA give an ED boost. That's been well-established in various places, and the numbers I have show that the boost is pretty similar. Which is better for you? No one really knows the answer to that question, at least not in a definite, absolutely certain here's-a-percentage sense. That's just the nature of the process. If forced to guess, I'd suspect that you have a slightly better chance at UVA, but again, it depends on how the class and applicant pool at each school is shaping up.

Ultimately, your GPA is stellar and your LSAT is just a few points off what you need. I know you said you didn't want to take it again, but after all the work you've done, I think you could get away with studying far less and still have a chance to do better on a retake (in part because of this effect). That more than anything will increase your chances at all these schools.

I hope that helps. Thanks!

[Jleon25]

Hello Dave,

Sorry for the late reply. I just wanted to say thank you for your advice and even more for your honesty. You always give great and detailed answers on forum questions! I really appreciate the truthful words. I am likely going to E.D. Duke of out sheer hope!!

Thanks again
Jacob L.

[Dave Killoran]

Thanks Jacob, I really appreciate hearing that! I'm so glad I could help, and I'll be wishing you the best of luck with your Duke application. Please let me know how it turns out.

Thanks again!

[Jleon25]

Hello Dave,

You are very welcome! I was wondering if you could give me your opinion on the "optional" essays in Duke's application.
I am a few days away from completing the final drafts of my personal statement and diversity statement after working with a PowerScore Consultant the past few weeks. I only have a little less than two weeks left to finish my E.D. application (Nov. 13th).
Are these essays really optional if I am going to E.D.? I feel like I have to complete them since I am going to E.D. Is this feeling warranted?

The first essay asks for "why you have chosen to apply to law school in general and Duke in particular. We are interested in the factors that have prompted your interest in a legal career and the ways in which you think Duke can further that interest."

The second asks for "how you will enhance the educational environment of the Law School and contribute to the diversity of the student body. Because we believe that diversity enriches the educational experience of all our students, Duke Law School seeks to admit students from a variety of academic, cultural, social, ethnic, economic, and other backgrounds. In this essay, you may tell us more about your particular life experiences with an emphasis on how the perspectives that you have acquired would contribute to the intellectual community of the Law School."

For the second essay, would a diversity statement about homelessness, being raised by a single disabled mother, juvenile abuse by father, and other things be sufficient for this essay? My diversity statement also speaks a little about my determination and work ethic.

Thanks for your time AS ALWAYS!!!!
Jacob L.

[Dave Killoran]

Hi Jacob,

Thanks for the questions! The conventional thinking with optional essays is that since they give you a chance to further fill in your profile and convey more information to the admissions committee, you should always write them. I somewhat agree with that, but mindset of "always write when given the opportunity" can be dangerous. If what you say is compelling and interesting, and especially if it adds new information to your profile, then by all means write these essays. But if you are struggling to make it come alive or if you feel like you already covered the high points elsewhere, then be very careful. These people read a lot of essays and they can tell when your heart isn't in it, and there's a penalty for wasting their time (that's not directed at you, by the way; this is more a general comment for anybody reading this who is thinking about any type of optional essay). So, if you can add something new and interesting, go for it.

As far as your diversity essay, yeah, that would totally qualify! No questions at all there—write it

Please let me know if that helps. Thanks!

[Jleon25]

Hello Dave,

Your answers help as always! My personal statement really touches on the first essay (besides the duke in particular part). You have eliminated a lot of uncertainty for me in this process!

Thanks and have a great weekend!

Jacob L.

[Dave Killoran]

Awesome, glad I could help!