Hi Mr. Wren,
I'm currently in the process of ironing out the last handful of incorrects in my practice tests, and this is one of the questions I'm really struggling to develop an adequate process for. See TLDR at the bottom if necessary, somehow this became essay length.
>>>The two key points in this sentence are (1) that these plaintiffs will continue pursuing their case because of their personal beliefs that they will win (2) despite the evidence that suggests they will not win.
Regarding your summary of the key points, I'm not sure why we've ruled out "... believe that their cause is just". The passage seems to specifically avoid making either one a support to the other(i.e. "just and that therefore they will prevail"). This seems to strongly support a 3 point prephrase.
>>>Generalizing from this, we're looking for a group of people who continue doing some behavior due to personal belief that the behavior works despite evidence that it does not work.
I'll expand on this more in a second, but this generalization exemplifies my mental block with the question itself. This seems like the sort of generalization that could only really be reached consistently with a specific answer in mind. Leaving the "justness" objection aside, I'm completely at a loss for why someone would be expected to generalize unfavorable odds of success at X as "evidence that X does not work". That seems like it would be an easily crossed of answer had it shown up in LR.
>>>While this answer doesn't specifically state that the athletes continue these training techniques due to their personal beliefs, this is implied. (Why else would they continue to use these techniques despite the evidence?)
This is the part where I double down on that mental block. I've seen the claim that such a belief is implied/the rhetorical of "why else would they do it" in a number of explanations for this question, which I find really surprising. There are numerous alternative explanations that are highly common in fitness circles. [Admittedly, many of them depend on interpreting the use of "unlikely to be effective" in the passage to mean "unlikely to be an effective means of X" rather than "unlikely to have an effect", but consider the following: A) the latter interpretation would refer to a far more niche set of training techniques(eating raw meat vs the vast majority of exercise/workout variations) B) the latter interpretation would drastically aggravate the aforementioned "unfavourability vs non-functionality" distinction, and C) many of the alternatives would still function to various extents even under this definition]. The athlete in question could be doing the exercise to avoid injury, or while in recovery from a previous injury. The athlete could be doing it with goals in mind other than the pure "effectiveness" of the exercise like enjoyment(ego lifting, advanced calisthenics, etc) or mental training, or be limited by some logistical factors like time and equipment, or just simply because it has become routine. Their coach could be a traditionalist/big believer in the efficacy of the exercise/unaware of the statistics themselves, and therefore continue to mandate its use. It could even be a matter of having reached a level at which results simply plateau. I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but this seems to be a crucial load-bearing element of the explanation. Even if the athletes that fall into our very specific motivation constitute a significant majority, they can still be further separated into those convinced their action will be successful and those far less sure or entirely uncertain, and further still into those who believe that the statistics are themselves inaccurate vs those who believe the statistics are inapplicable in their specific case. Only this latter group maintains a strong-ish level of similarity to the plaintiffs, while the others are weakly analogous at best.
When using the "unlikely to be an effective means of X" definition, the logical jump here seems absolutely staggering(the language of the question is "can best be likened to" and "athletes that", so taking the group as a whole seems obligatory):
1. Assuming that one out of the wide variety of explanations for the athletes behavior constitutes a significant majority
2. Making similar assumptions regarding the beliefs of the athletes regarding the statistics
3. Thereby likening them to the plaintiff in that (in a majority of cases)they fulfill the first key point, they fulfill the second across the board, and they entirely ignore the third.
When using the alternative definition, it covers some of the weaknesses in the first step while making the second all the more challenging. In this case, both the data itself and the beliefs one would likely have to to hold to act contrary to it stray further and further from the situation of the plaintiff[additionally, this approach actually makes some of the alternative explanations even
more likely i.e. alternative goals, logistical/authority based restrictions ].
[TLDR]To wrap up, while some of this might seem needlessly nitpicky, I just found this answer insanely convoluted, and I felt that all the explanations I could find online made massive leaps in their logic. While some of the minutiae can go either way, to my eyes its pretty inarguable that out of the 3 key points at issue, answer A satisfies the first point in some cases (belief their action will be successful), the second in all(they know the odds are against their success), and the third in none(justness). What I see as the other 2 (relatively) strong answers, C(1. *partial, 2. partial*, and 3. all ) and E(1. none, 2. all, 3. all), both perform similarly. All in all this just seems like an absolute wreck of a question, but I'm very open to hearing systems or approaches that would make it manageable.
*not even gonna try and defend this, we'll be here for hours, but the situations that have P1 at none almost necessarily have P2 at all*