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#35658
Complete Question Explanation

Resolve-#%. The correct answer choice is (A)

Upon first reading, it seems that the increased likelihood of being convicted for car theft might itself
explain the steady decline in automobile thefts during the past five years. However, the question stem
suggests that some other circumstance will account for both elements of the stimulus. Look for an
answer that does not disregard either aspect and possibly suggests how both aspects arose.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. If this is true, then previous car thieves
were less likely to be caught since they were no longer driving the stolen car when the police were
notified. As that proportion has decreased, police are more likely to catch thieves red-handed, which
surely increases the likelihood of conviction.

Answer choice (B): The increased use of car alarms might account for the decline in the number
of automobile thefts, but does not explain the increased likelihood of conviction. Additionally, the
fact that people generally ignore car alarms would tend to negate any deterring effect they might
otherwise have.

Answer choice (C): If police departments are forced to devote limited resources to investigating
home burglaries (and presumably away from investigating automobile thefts), why would the
likelihood of conviction increase and the number of thefts decline? This answer undermines an
explanation of the facts above.

Answer choice (D): In contrast to (A), answer choice (D) suggests that catching (and subsequently
convicting) car thieves might be particularly difficult because the primary evidence of the crime is
quickly destroyed. Furthermore, if the market is increasingly lucrative, we cannot easily explain why
the number of thefts has declined.

Answer choice (E): Sentencing only occurs post-conviction. Since the stimulus is about trying
to explain what causes the increased likelihood of conviction, facts regarding events following
conviction are unlikely to be useful. Arguing that sentencing guidelines for teenage car thieves
influences the likelihood of conviction requires an assumption that judges occasionally feel
compelled not to convict adults because they did not want to be forced to impose excessively harsh
sentences on adult offenders. That is an unjustified leap from the evidence we are given.
 pranavshah7887
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#77721
Hi,
Could someone please help me explain answer A better? I understand that out of all the other choices, this one is the most helpful to resolve the paradox. I am, however, not able to come to terms with it when it look at it mathematically. To illustrate--
1) Before, let's assume there were 20 thieves. Let the percentage of the ones who would abandon [car] before being noticed by the owner be 70%. That translates to 14 thieves who abandon the vehicle, whereas you would still have 6 who would not do so.
2) Now [after 5 years], let's assume there are 10 thieves (the stem mentions that the number of thieves has reduced) and the percentage of the ones abandoning the vehicle before being notice to be 50% (Answer A mentions that this percentage has also reduced). That, now , translates to 5 thieves who abandon the vehicle, where as you would only have 5 who don't do so.

In this case then, case 1 should have resulted in more convictions?
Please let me know where am I going wrong here.

Regards
Pranav
 Rachael Wilkenfeld
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#77757
Hi Pranav

You have more convictions in the past, but from the perspective of the car thief, the conviction rate is lower. In your example only 6/20 would have been convicted (30%), whereas now 5/10 would be (50%). Those are the numbers we need to compare. Not the absolute numbers of thefts, but the LIKELIHOOD of conviction. Likelihood tells us that we need to think about the rate of conviction instead of the absolute number of convictions.

Hope that helps!
Rachael
 pranavshah7887
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#78152
Hi Rachael,

Thanks for the clarification. This does help. Coming back to this question after a week, I feel that I was, probably, overthinking this.
Thanks for the excellent help!

Regards
Pranav

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