- Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:40 pm
#3576
In that one, the meteorologist says that his station is the best at predicting rain, because most of the times they've predicted rain they've been right. The problem is that we have very limited information--we know that the meteorologist's station has been right with its rain predictions a majority of the time, but we don't know how many times they've made such a prediction. If they only made one such prediction, for example, and they were right, they could forever say that they've been right 100% of the time. If, on the other hand, they have predicted rain more often than the most popular station, and they are the only ones who have been right the majority of the time, that strengthens the meteorologist's claim that his station's forecasts are more useful and reliable than those of the most popular station. This is what correct answer choice A provides.
Let me know whether this clears that one up--thanks!
~Steve
Steve Stein
PowerScore Test Preparation