- Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:00 am
#36320
Complete Question Explanation
Strengthen. The correct answer choice is (D)
Thy psychologist concludes that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt
to start a business than people who are less confident. As evidence, she points to a study in which the
entrepreneurs showed a higher level of confidence in their responses than did the business managers.
There are several problems with the psychologist’s argument. First, by implying that overconfidence
makes one more likely to attempt to start a business, she ignores the possibility that some of the
entrepreneurs may have become especially overconfident after starting their businesses, not before. It
is also possible that they had attempted to start a business for reasons having nothing to do with their
personality traits.
Furthermore, consider the fact that both groups—the entrepreneurs as well as the business
managers—were deemed “overconfident” in their responses to the survey; the entrepreneurs were
simply more so than the business managers. This fact alone does not make the entrepreneurs
“especially overconfident,” because the phrase is too vague and conveys an absolute quality despite
the comparative nature of the survey results. It is entirely possible that the members of both groups
would classify as “especially overconfident” in general, which begs the question as to why business
managers were less likely to start a business than entrepreneurs.
Answer choice (A): It is entirely irrelevant what kinds of questions were asked of the participants in
the study. This answer choice is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): This is the Opposite answer. If at least some of the entrepreneurs had accurately
determined what the odds were against success, one could argue that their attempts were prompted
not by overconfidence, but by a realistic assessment of the risks involved. This interpretation would
weaken, not strengthen, the conclusion of the argument, because it would propose an alternate
cause for the decisions made. After all, overconfidence implies bias in which someone’s subjective
confidence in their judgments or abilities is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of these
judgments. The entrepreneurs would not be considered “overconfident” if they had accurately
determined the risks involved.
Answer choice (C): Whether confidence and success in business are correlated has no bearing on
whether confidence and entrepreneurship are also correlated. One can be successful in business
without being an entrepreneur, and vice versa—one can be an entrepreneur without being successful.
Answer choice (D): This is the correct answer choice. If the business managers who were “most
overconfident” had attempted to start businesses in the past, this finding would further associate
particularly high levels of confidence with entrepreneurship, and strengthen the conclusion of the
argument.
Answer choice (E): At first glance, this seems like an attractive answer because it suggests that
someone’s confidence in answering the survey questions would be a suitable proxy for her
confidence in general. However, there is a difference in scope between being confident in one’s
business acumen and being overconfident in general. Since our job is to strengthen the correlation
between general overconfidence and entrepreneurship, this answer choice falls short of lending the
most support to the psychologist’s conclusion.
Strengthen. The correct answer choice is (D)
Thy psychologist concludes that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt
to start a business than people who are less confident. As evidence, she points to a study in which the
entrepreneurs showed a higher level of confidence in their responses than did the business managers.
There are several problems with the psychologist’s argument. First, by implying that overconfidence
makes one more likely to attempt to start a business, she ignores the possibility that some of the
entrepreneurs may have become especially overconfident after starting their businesses, not before. It
is also possible that they had attempted to start a business for reasons having nothing to do with their
personality traits.
Furthermore, consider the fact that both groups—the entrepreneurs as well as the business
managers—were deemed “overconfident” in their responses to the survey; the entrepreneurs were
simply more so than the business managers. This fact alone does not make the entrepreneurs
“especially overconfident,” because the phrase is too vague and conveys an absolute quality despite
the comparative nature of the survey results. It is entirely possible that the members of both groups
would classify as “especially overconfident” in general, which begs the question as to why business
managers were less likely to start a business than entrepreneurs.
Answer choice (A): It is entirely irrelevant what kinds of questions were asked of the participants in
the study. This answer choice is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): This is the Opposite answer. If at least some of the entrepreneurs had accurately
determined what the odds were against success, one could argue that their attempts were prompted
not by overconfidence, but by a realistic assessment of the risks involved. This interpretation would
weaken, not strengthen, the conclusion of the argument, because it would propose an alternate
cause for the decisions made. After all, overconfidence implies bias in which someone’s subjective
confidence in their judgments or abilities is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of these
judgments. The entrepreneurs would not be considered “overconfident” if they had accurately
determined the risks involved.
Answer choice (C): Whether confidence and success in business are correlated has no bearing on
whether confidence and entrepreneurship are also correlated. One can be successful in business
without being an entrepreneur, and vice versa—one can be an entrepreneur without being successful.
Answer choice (D): This is the correct answer choice. If the business managers who were “most
overconfident” had attempted to start businesses in the past, this finding would further associate
particularly high levels of confidence with entrepreneurship, and strengthen the conclusion of the
argument.
Answer choice (E): At first glance, this seems like an attractive answer because it suggests that
someone’s confidence in answering the survey questions would be a suitable proxy for her
confidence in general. However, there is a difference in scope between being confident in one’s
business acumen and being overconfident in general. Since our job is to strengthen the correlation
between general overconfidence and entrepreneurship, this answer choice falls short of lending the
most support to the psychologist’s conclusion.