#7 - The coming economic recovery will surely be strong

[iLSAT180]

Would you guys be able to post a breakdown of the premise, conclusions, and answer choices? I initially chose E, but then I realised that the patterns behind their reliability does not affect the argument. Answer A seems to be hinting that their predictions are biased to benefit their employers. I'm not entirely sure though. Please let me know if I'm on the right track! Thanks!

[Adam Tyson]

You are exactly on track there, iLSAT180! The issue raised in answer A is one of bias - if the investment guys have certain biases, that might make their assessments less reliable than the author would have us believe.

Here's the argument:

Premise: Investment Co. economists are risking their jobs, academics are not
Sub-Conclusion: We should take the Investment Co. economists more seriously than the academics
Premise: Investment Co. economists think the recovery will be strong, while academic economists do not
Conclusion: The recovery will be strong

To weaken this argument, we want to see some evidence that perhaps the Investment Co. economists might be wrong, despite the risk they are taking in making their predictions. Perhaps they have a strong motive to take that risk, one which might cast doubt on their reliability?

Well done, keep that up and don't doubt yourself!