#22 - Over the last 10 years, there has been a dramatic

[silent7706]

Hi,

I just don't think (A) does much to strengthen the conclusion "...a dramatic increase in the number of people over the age of 65."

It's easy to construct a scenario where you have more younger people below 18, while no increase of the number people age above 65. For example, all you need is to increase number of old people from 57 - 64.9(just below 65), while having some more people younger than 18. Your average population age can still increase from 52 to 57 while having no effect on the number of people who are 65+.

I hope I did not miss something big here because that will be unfortunate since I deal with numbers on a daily basis as an accountant, haha.

[Adam Tyson]

Looks to me like you are trying to prove that there are more people over 65, silent7706, rather than simply help that conclusion look a little better, which is all you need for a Strengthen answer. While you're right that the correct answer doesn't prove the conclusion, it certainly helps a lot by eliminating an obvious possible alternate cause for the increased average. Don't set the bar too high on these questions! Anything that helps, helps! Does answer A make the conclusion seem a bit more plausible, a bit more likely to be true? That's the standard to apply, and A does that while none of the other answers matter at all.

[silent7706]

Thank you Adam. That total makes sense to me now.

[ashpine17]

Everytime i try this question i keep picking b and i have no idea why. How do i fix this i do this quewtion then leave it and weeks later i come back and choose b again like i get down to a and b and just keep picking b it drive me crazy.

[mateoguillamont]

Hello!

For (A), how do we know there was not an overall decrease of people under 52 even if there was an increase in those under 18? Would that not make it have the same problem as (D)?

[Jeff Wren]

Hi mateoguillamont,

The short answer is that we don't know for certain what happened to the group age 18-52. This is why it is important to note that this is a strengthen question rather than a Justify question.

Answer A does not 100% prove the conclusion (for the reason that you mention). However, knowing that there is an increase in younger people (along with the fact that the average went up rather than went down) does strengthen the conclusion by making it more likely that there was an increase in people over 65. Given the way averages work, it would be difficult to 100% prove the conclusion here without having more detailed information about the sizes of different the age groups.

It can be helpful for this question to first think about how we would weaken the argument. If we could show there were less younger people, that would weaken the argument. So showing more young people does the opposite.