#18 - In recent years the climate has been generally cool in

[kky215]

Hi, I have a question about PT 20 S1 Q18, which is a paradox resolve question.
I was able to come down to answer choices C and E, but I ultimately chose E as the answer.

I've read the explanation for this question already, and the explanation says that E is wrong because it does NOT explain why yearly yield of crops would decrease.
However, in my mind, E explains the WHY factor too - if the recent climate (increased humidity and temperature) prevents many crops from being farmed there during the winter (when before the climate change, they were able to be farmed during the winter season), wouldn't there automatically be a decrease in the "yearly yield" of crops - because what could have been cropped during the winter can no longer be cropped?

I understand why C is an answer -- because it explains how the climate change contributes negatively (with the presence of pests) but I can't seem to eliminate E with 100% confidence.

Please help.

Thanks!

[Nikki Siclunov]

Thanks for your question.

Notice that in recent years the climate in northern Asia has been generally cool (first sentence). According to answer choice (E), this has prevented many crops from being farmed there during the winter. In this context, answer choice (E) might explain why the crop yields have been lower in recent years, but it provides no explanation as to why this will continue to be the case even at higher average temperatures.

I think you misinterpreted what they meant by "recent climate in northern Asia" in answer choice (E): they weren't referring to the isolated periods of increased humidity, but rather to the general tendency of the climate to be cool. Furthermore, even if by "recent climate" answer choice (E) were referring to the isolated incidents of higher temperatures/humidity, this would actually deepen the paradox described, because it would imply that higher temperatures correlate with lower crop yields. Meanwhile, the author clearly points out that during periods of higher humidity/temperature, the yields of most crops grown increased significantly. Obviously, some other factor will prevent this from continuing to occur in the future. Answer choice (C) fits the bill: if high humidity leads to the establishment of crop insect pests, this would explain why the recently observed trend is unlikely to continue in the future.

Hope this helps!

[reop6780]

The correct answer is C while I skipped this question.

Does answer C automatically imply that once the temperature incleases, the insect pests would be established? - hence the yields of the crops decrease ..?

Personally, such implication seems a bit too stretched to be recognized. Is it common for "resolve paradox question" ?

[Lucas Moreau]

Hello, reop,

Answer choice C is the best answer choice, yes! The paradox in question is how temperatures can rise - leading to higher crop yields - while scientists also predict that crop yields will lower as those temperatures rise.

The best way to resolve that paradox, while still letting both premises be true, is to introduce the idea of a side effect caused by the rising temperatures - the insect pests. It's not one hundred percent certain, like a Must Be True question, but it's the best answer, and you should indeed expect such things for Resolve questions.

Hope that helps,
Lucas Moreau

[reop6780]

thank you, Lucas !

[Basia W]

Good morning,

In order to resolve the paradox I chose E) thinking that due to the loss of winter farming the overall region would experience a decrease. Although I had C) as a contender, I am not sure how the lack of crop pests would be detrimental...Wouldn't this lead to a crop increase rather than decrease?

thank you!

Basia

[David Boyle]

In order to resolve the paradox I chose E) thinking that due to the loss of winter farming the overall region would experience a decrease. Although I had C) as a contender, I am not sure how the lack of crop pests would be detrimental...Wouldn't this lead to a crop increase rather than decrease?

Hello,

But as for answer E, the temperature is warming up, so winter farming may not be a problem in the future. And as for answer C, the point is that with the warming and humidity, there are going to be more pests in the future.

David

[HowardQ]

Hi,

I have a question regarding B and C. B is a clear wrong answer in practice, but in the context of this question, I think it is just as good or even better answer than C. Answer C suggest that the recent condition have spawned pests, but does not guarantee what will happen if the weather became warmer and humid. Thus we cannot conclude the pest will make the crops continually decreasing over a century. On the contrary, if assuming increasing T and H increase CO2, and CO2 decreases yield, that will guarantee the decreasing of yield for a long time. Also the books advised not to bring outside info into the context, does it apply to this case?


Thanks

[Adam Tyson]

I think you may be misreading answer B, HowardQ. What it is telling us is that the increased temp and humidity will increase CO2, which is GOOD for the plants (CO2 is vital to their respiration). That doesn't explain why crop yields will go down, and in fact makes the paradox worse by suggesting that they should be thriving in the new, CO2-rich environment.

I think you also may be misreading answer C, because that isn't saying the recent weather has spawned more pests, but rather that the mostly cool, dry weather has kept them down! Answer C helps explain why the crop yields that have been increased might not stay that way and could take a u-turn. If the cool, dry weather has kept the pests from developing, and we are moving to a new normal where we no longer have that cool, dry weather, then the pests will finally be able to gain a foothold, and that could explain the crop yields decreasing in the future.

Finally, it's important to understand that we don't need any guarantees in our answer to a Resolve the Paradox question. It's a lot like a Strengthen question, in that we just need to see some evidence that might help us go "oh, okay, now that makes more sense!" We don't have to prove that the pests will reduce the crop yields, but just suggest that maybe that might happen. That's enough to, as the stem asked, "help".

I hope that resolves your dilemma with this question!