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#36662
Complete Question Explanation

Flaw in the Reasoning. The correct answer choice is (A)

This stimulus takes a very familiar LSAT form: it begins with an assertion, concludes that the
assertion is not valid, and then provides support for this conclusion (although in this case that
support is questionable). In this example, the author opens with the contention of a leading critic of
space exploration, who claims that it would be wrong to send a manned expedition to Mars, because
current technology would make their survival unlikely.

The author asserts that this characterization is an exaggeration of the risk, because back-up security
systems exist at every stage, each making a fatal accident unlikely at any given stage of the trip:
  • Claim: With current technology, those who try to go to Mars are unlikely to
    survive the trip.

    Author’s conclusion: This is an exaggeration.

    Author’s premise: With back-up systems in place, a fatal accident is unlike at any given
    stage.
The problem with this argument is known as an Error of Composition: the flawed presumption that
what is true of each part is also true of the whole—that if each individual stage of the trip is safe,
then the overall trip must be safe as well.

The stimulus is followed by a Flaw question, so the correct answer choice will describe the flawed
presumption that what is true of each part must also be true of the whole.

Note: It is probably no coincidence that this question, which displays an Error of Composition,
is placed immediately after another question dealing with the related but distinguishable Error of
Division.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice, and an accurate description of the Error of
Composition displayed in the reasoning of the stimulus. The author wrongly infers that something
(crew safety) is true of a whole (the entire trip to Mars) merely from the fact that it is true of each
individual part (each stage of the trip).

Answer choice (B): The author of this stimulus does not infer that something cannot happen, but that
something (a fatal catastrophe) would be quite unlikely. Since there is no such inference, this choice cannot reflect the flawed reasoning found in the stimulus.

Answer choice (C): Much like wrong answer choice (B), this incorrect answer describes an
unjustified leap from probability to certainty. The author of the stimulus, however, does not make
this leap to certainty; the assertion is merely that a fatal accident is unlikely.

Answer choice (D): The author does not infer that anything will definitely work. Rather, the author
discusses backup safety measures that make an accident unlikely at any given stage of the trip
discussed. Since the stimulus deals with likelihood rather than certainty, this cannot be the correct
answer choice.

Answer choice (E): The author does not reject the critic’s concern based on the critic’s inadequate
argument. Rather, the author rejects the concern based on the safety measures in place at each stage
of the trip (and the flawed conclusion that an accident is unlikely to occur at any given stage of the
trip).
 rachue
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#1555
Hi, I didn't particularly like any of the answers for this question. I can kind of understand why A is right, but it still doesn't seem that strong of an answer to me. I originally crossed it out as an option because it must not have popped at me when I was taking the test. Could someone please help me understand the reasoning behind this answer?

I originally chose D.

Many thanks.
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#1574
Hi, can you clarify your thinking on this question? The more information you provide about your thought process, the more easily we can assist you.

Thanks!
 rachue
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#1580
Hi,

I think the problem is I didn't originally realize the flaw in this stimulus. Is the flaw about the back up system being at every stage? Or is it that the conclusion that the critic "exaggerated the risk" is unsupported?
 Steve Stein
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#1586
Claim: With current technology, those who try to go to Mars are unlikely to survive.
Author’s conclusion: This claim is an exaggeration.
Author’s premise: With back-up systems , a fatal accident is unlike at any given stage.

The problem with this argument is known as an Error of Composition: the flawed presumption that what is true of each part is also true of the whole—that if each individual stage of the trip is safe, then the overall trip must be safe as well.

Answer choice A is the correct answer choice, and an accurate description of the Error of Composition displayed in the reasoning of the stimulus. The author wrongly infers that something (crew safety) is true of a whole (the entire trip to Mars) merely from the fact that it is true of each individual part (each stage of the trip).
 rachue
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#1588
Ok that clears it up. Thanks.
 hlg0035
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#10737
(A leading critic of space exploration...reasoning the argument is flawed question)

Need a little explaining on why A is correct. I understand it a little but, but I still think B is the better answer.

Thank you.
 BethRibet
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#10744
Hi,

Thanks for your question. Imagine that there are 40 stages involved in the long and complicated journey, and at each stage there's a 2% chance of a fatal catastrophe. Though the 2% chance at "any given stage", is minor, there are 40 instances where that small chance might come into play. That is, the chance of a catastrophe, though small at any given stage, is actually high overall. The whole journey is different from "any given stage", and that corresponds to answer choice A -- the whole is not identical to the parts, and we don't treat their characteristics as interchangeable.

Hope this helps!
Beth
 eober
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#16650
Hi,

I approached the question thinking that the flaw was author assuming just because a backup system is well-engineered and works at every stage, that doesn't mean the fatal catastrophe is unlikely. There could be something other than the backup system that goes wrong.

Although through elimination process I ended up with answer choice A, I am not sure if I identified the flaw correctly. How does the whole-part relationship translate to what is given in the stimulus? Is the back up system parts and the the trip is the whole? I just want to make sure if I have the right idea when I am going to the answer choices, thanks!! :)
 Adam Tyson
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#16691
The whole here is the entire trip; the parts are each stage of the trip. Think of it in more familiar terms - a drive across country. There's a low chance that you will get a flat tire in the first 100 miles, or the next 100 miles, or the next 100 miles after that. Does that mean there is a low chance of getting a flat on the entire trip? Not at all - the cumulative risk of getting a flat is much greater than the risk of getting a flat at any given stage of the trip. The longer you drive, the more likely it is you will get a flat. Same thing here, except the flat is a failure of the backup system that leads to a fatal catastrophe.

The key language here that should tip you off is "at any given stage".

I hope that helped!

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