#19 - In the decade from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s

[reop6780]

Hi, Steve! Thank you for your reply

Yes, I agree that people would feel secure about their job for 9 years after "most of the major downsizing" was completed in 1984 if that is the fact. (answer D)

Still, my question was how people would feel secure BEFORE the downsizing was completed (the first survey was conducted before the completion of the downsizing).

I guess downsizing process could be almost done by the time the first survey was conducted even though it was not entirely completed..?

[Steve Stein]

Hi,

Thanks for your response. The idea there is that the first survey preceded the downsizing, most of which, the correct answer choice provides, was done within a year after the first survey.

I hope that's helpful! Please let me know whether this is clear--thanks!

~Steve

[reop6780]

Ah ha ! Finally got it ! thank you

[kristinaroz93]

I am actually confused about choice C of this problem. At first I was thinking that the people felt insecure already having anticipated these events for so long and thus wouldn't be surprised by them, and so their perceptions would have been constant before and after turmoil. But then it stated in the last sentence that the people surveryed said they actually felt secure.....

So is it because they were somehow able to prepare accordingly for the disaster? I.e. perfect their job skills on their current job to such an extent that they can outdo all the other employees and thus have job safety even in bad conditions.

And just to clarify for D, the disaster started after the survey in 1984 and then ended before the end of 1984, is that correct =)?

[Robert Carroll]

Kristina,

If answer choice (C) is true, then people in 1984 would, in very general terms, have realized they had relatively low job security. If the rest of the information in the stimulus is true, the events that caused people correctly to perceive they had low job security continued until the mid 1990s. Imagine you're a person in 1984 - according to answer choice (C), you anticipate downsizing, so you have relatively low job security. Perhaps 58% of people claiming they believed their jobs were secure would constitute "low job security," because in an economy without anticipated downsizing, more than 58% of people would claim they thought their jobs were secured. Then in 1994, because downsizing has been going on for a decade (and thus people perceive the job environment in a similar way to that in 1984), people are still relatively insecure about their jobs - 55% say they are secure.

You seem to be hung up on 55 and 58 as "large" numbers indicating high job security. But think about it this way - if 55% of working age people had jobs, that would make unemployment 45%, which would be enormous! 55% is not inherently large or small - it depends on context. All the stimulus is trying to say is that the percent didn't change very much, and it's apparently paradoxical that it didn't.

In answer choice (D), we don't know that exactly (nor do we need to). Within a year of the survey, most of the major downsizing occurred.

Robert Carroll

[Steve Stein]

Hey Kristin,

Good question. If most people had anticipated the downsizing, they would not have been surprised when they occurred—by that time they could have adjusted their perspectives accordingly—so they could already have been getting nervous well before 1984. That would help explain why their opinions on the matter didn't change much during the actual period of downsizing—by the time the downsizing began maybe they were already nervous (both surveys had over four out of ten employees not feeling secure in their jobs). Employees' relative level of security—or perhaps insecurity—remained roughly constant.

As for your second question, technically, if most of the downsizing took place within a year after the survey, then that means that most had taken place within a year of the date of the survey—so if the survey had been taken in June of 1984, for example, that would mean that most of the downsizing took place by June of the 1985 (not just the end of 1984).

I hope that's helpful! Please let me know whether this is clear—thanks!

~Steve

[kristinaroz93]

Hi Robert,

I see what you are saying. You are right that I looked at the numbers and thought "wow a lot of people feel secure when in reality it showed that there was still actually alot of insecurity happening, seeing as how a good chunk of the population still didn't feel secure (even though that chunk was less than half it was still quite large (over 40 % is still quite large)), but it could also be that the little over 40 percent chunk just didn't answer the survey and not that they felt insecure so that is where I am confused. I feel like there was an assumption I was supposed to make that I didn't know I could.

And also can you expand what you meant by this line, "All the stimulus is trying to say is that the percent didn't change very much, and it's apparently paradoxical that it didn't". As in didn't change uch from 1984 to mid 1990s ? And how is this paradoxical?

[kristinaroz93]

Now that I see Steve's response as well, this is how I am looking at the problem putting everything from both your posts all together:
Please let me know if I have fully grasped this problem:

People had anticipated the downsizing of 1984 and so they thus felt the same before and during the turmoil of 1984 (insecure that is), allowing their perceptions on their job security to have remained constant throughout. And we are referring strictly to those people who had not answered the survery as having felt secure on their jobs. Is this it?

[Steve Stein]

Hey Kristen,

The first part of your answer hit the nail on the head, so if it's ok I'll just add to it at the end:

Peopele anticipated the downsizing of 1984 and so they thus felt the same before and during the turmoil of 1984 (felt inecure that is), allowing their perceptions on their job security to have remained constant throughout.

As such, survey respondents felt pretty insecure in their jobs in 1984, and that continued through the downsizing, which everyone had been expecting: in 1994, whether people had stayed in the same jobs or gotten new ones, by and large people who had jobs in 1994 felt roughly the same level of insecurity.

We don't know anything about the people who didn't respond to the survey, and we don't know anything about the people who didn't have jobs at the time of the survey, since it was only distributed to "employees."

I hope that's helpful! Please let me know whether this is clear—thanks!

~Steve

[kristinaroz93]

Hi Steve,

Thank you for responding, I still feel a bit confused though=/

'As such, survey respondents felt pretty insecure in their jobs in 1984, and that continued through the downsizing, which everyone had been expecting: in 1994, whether people had stayed in the same jobs or gotten new ones, by and large people who had jobs in 1994 felt roughly the same level of insecurity. "

How do we know they felt insecure when people who responded to the first survey said they had actually felt secure (or more than half of them did anyways)? And how do we know people who had jobs in 1994 felt roughly the same level of insecurity ? And how would it make sense that they would feel the same level of insecurity given they didn't anticipate that downsizing only the first one?

(What am I missing with this problem=/)


Also in my response to Robert earlier I didnt know we could make asusmptions like that, as in could it be that people just didn't answer the survey rather than it being that only 58 percent felt secure and the rest didn't? So maybe even more than 58 percent felt secure and just didn;t say so. What do you guys think?