#6- Beck: Our computer program estimates municipal

[mpoulson]

Hello,

I got this question right and understand why E correctly indicates the flaw in the premise. I chose E because it explicitly stated the flaw in the premise that consistency equated with accuracy. However, I paused at C because it was confusing and hard to understand what it meant. I think it means that the the program would be consistent even if the results are inaccurate. Basically no matter what the program says the results will be consistent. This isn't the flaw in the statement. Did I understand C correctly? I want to be sure so that I can confidently answer questions going forward.

- Micah

[Jonathan Evans]

Micah,

Good job pausing to get a deeper understanding of the mechanics of incorrect answers. Great way to notice patterns and make improvement.

(C) means the following: the argument is flawed in that it assumes that the program would continue to produce consistent output even if the estimates are flawed.

This answer choice weakens Beck's conclusion. Your paraphrase "I think it means that the the program would be consistent even if the results are inaccurate" is correct.

Beck discounts the possibility that consistent output could occur along with inaccurate output.

[Brazilfagan]

I am having hard time understanding why this could not be the letter A? I understand E but I choose A.

[Jonathan Evans]

Hi, Brazilfagan,

Good question. Let's take a look at the argument. Begin with your analysis. What's the conclusion?

• "The estimates of the computer program are accurate."

What premises/evidence do we have to back this up?

• "The numbers are the same week after week."

Now, before you start considering the answer choices, you must describe the problem yourself. How could it be that even though the numbers are always nearly the same, they're still no good? This is where your prephrase comes in:

• "Even though the numbers are the same, that's not good enough to establish that they're correct."

Compare this to answer choice (A):

• Well, (A) talks about consistency and accuracy, which I like, but it also talks about the relative importance of consistency vs.
  accuracy. The author's not trying to say consistency is more important than accuracy. Instead, the author is trying to say the consistency is good evidence that the numbers are accurate. Not a match.

The issue in that answer choice is a purported comparison that doesn't actually happen. The relationship between consistency and accuracy is not to say we should look at one and not the other. The relationship is to say one (consistency) implies the other (accuracy).

Does this help? Good question!

[oli_oops]

Micah,

Good job pausing to get a deeper understanding of the mechanics of incorrect answers. Great way to notice patterns and make improvement.

(C) means the following: the argument is flawed in that it assumes that the program would continue to produce consistent output even if the estimates are flawed.

This answer choice weakens Beck's conclusion. Your paraphrase "I think it means that the the program would be consistent even if the results are inaccurate" is correct.

Beck discounts the possibility that consistent output could occur along with inaccurate output.

Hi Jonathan,

Thanks for your reply. Though I still sort of understand what you mean by what you said.
Can you give a more straightforward explanation on the difference between C and E?
I chose E, but I'm reviewing this question and I feel like C and E are essentially the same...?
(of course I know they are not the same....)

Thank you!!

[Robert Carroll]

oli,

Would Beck assume that the output would be consistent if the estimates were inaccurate? Beck thinks that consistent output indicates accurate estimates. So Beck is taking for granted that consistency indicates accuracy. If the estimates were inaccurate, Beck would think that he/she could tell that by looking at consistency - it would differ. So answer choice (C) is the opposite of what Beck thinks. Beck thinks you can look at consistency and learn about the underlying accuracy. So changes in accuracy will reveal themselves in changes in observed consistency. Thus, Beck would NOT think that inaccuracy would fail to reveal itself.

Robert Carroll

[oli_oops]

oli,

Would Beck assume that the output would be consistent if the estimates were inaccurate? Beck thinks that consistent output indicates accurate estimates. So Beck is taking for granted that consistency indicates accuracy. If the estimates were inaccurate, Beck would think that he/she could tell that by looking at consistency - it would differ. So answer choice (C) is the opposite of what Beck thinks. Beck thinks you can look at consistency and learn about the underlying accuracy. So changes in accuracy will reveal themselves in changes in observed consistency. Thus, Beck would NOT think that inaccuracy would fail to reveal itself.

Robert Carroll

This is really helpful, thank you!!

[lsatryan]

Why is A incorrect?

[Adam Tyson]

I doubt I could explain it better than my esteemed colleague Jonathan did earlier in this thread, which I'll copy here:

Good question. Let's take a look at the argument. Begin with your analysis. What's the conclusion?
"The estimates of the computer program are accurate."
What premises/evidence do we have to back this up?
"The numbers are the same week after week."
Now, before you start considering the answer choices, you must describe the problem yourself. How could it be that even though the numbers are always nearly the same, they're still no good? This is where your prephrase comes in:
"Even though the numbers are the same, that's not good enough to establish that they're correct."
Compare this to answer choice (A):
Well, (A) talks about consistency and accuracy, which I like, but it also talks about the relative importance of consistency vs.
accuracy. The author's not trying to say consistency is more important than accuracy. Instead, the author is trying to say the consistency is good evidence that the numbers are accurate. Not a match.
The issue in that answer choice is a purported comparison that doesn't actually happen. The relationship between consistency and accuracy is not to say we should look at one and not the other. The relationship is to say one (consistency) implies the other (accuracy).

If this explanation doesn't do the trick, tell us more about your thoughts on answer A and what makes it attractive to you, and we'll take it from there!