#12 - Manager: Our company’s mail-order sales have recently

[Administrator]

Complete Question Explanation

Strengthen—CE. The correct answer choice is (A)

The conclusion of the argument suggests that the policy of free shipping increased mail-order sales:

• Premise: Our company’s mail-order sales have increased 25 percent.
  
  Premise: This increase started around the time we started offering unlimited free shipping.
  
  Conclusion: Our change in policy probably caused the increase.
  
  Cause Effect
  
  Unlimited Free Shipping Sale Increase

As with all causal arguments, you must critically evaluate the causality described in them. The conclusion, which is easy to spot due to the conclusion indicator “thus,” is based on a mere coincidence. Just because the introduction of free shipping coincided with a sales increase does not automatically prove that the former caused the latter. There may be an alternate cause for the stated effect, or both might be coincidental effects of another cause. To strengthen the cause and effect relationship, look for answers that either eliminate the possibility of alternate causes, or provide examples that strengthen the conclusion. Any scenario where the cause occurs and the effect follows, or—alternatively—where the cause does not occur and the effect does not occur, would lend credibility to the conclusion.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice, as it strengthens the argument by showing a scenario where the cause does not occur and the effect does not occur. Indeed, if companies that do not offer free shipping happen to suffer from a decrease in their mail-order sales, that provides further evidence of a causal relationship between the two.
Note that this answer choice describes a coincidence that does not prove the cause and effect relationship—it is still possible that other causes could account for the stated effect. In Strengthen questions, your choice should be based upon a comparative analysis between the five answer choices, and the correct answer choice does not have to prove the conclusion 100% to be correct.

Answer choice (B): This Opposite answer hurts the argument by suggesting that the change in policy was not widely advertised. If few people knew about the free shipping, it is unlikely that the sales increase resulted from it.

Answer choice (C): Whether the company’s profits have increased following the policy change is irrelevant. We know that their sales are up, and it is reasonable to assume that—all other things being equal—their profits would also increase. This does not mean that the change in policy increased the company’s sales, or their profits.

Answer choice (D): If the company started offering free shipping after its competitors did, this suggests that the company was under pressure to compete. However, what caused the change in policy is an irrelevant consideration; the question is whether the sales increase resulted from it.

Answer choice (E): This answer choice implies that unlimited free shipping is offered by few other companies, and that the manager’s company is relatively unique in this respect. For this to be a relevant consideration, however, we need to know what the sales volume is for those competitors who offer limited free shipping. Without this information, answer choice (E) cannot strengthen the conclusion.

[fg6118]

I'm confused as to why a is a better strengthener than d.

Thanks for the help!

[Stephanie Oswalt]

Hi fg6118,

Thanks for your question. Generally speaking, we need a bit more input from you before we delve into a discussion of a particular LR question. Ultimately, it won't be us who are taking the test; it's you! Our goal is to help you cultivate the analytical ability to approach these questions on your own, which is why you need to help us help you first.

Here's what I'd like you to do:

• 1. Describe your approach to the stimulus. Did you understand the argument, if any, from a structural standpoint? What is the conclusion, and what evidence is the author using in support of that conclusion?
  
  2. Did you prephrase an answer to the question in the stem? If so, what was your prephrase?
  
  3. What exactly made the two answer choices you have listed particularly attractive?

Thanks,

Stephanie

[alxphm]

Hello,

I was torn between answer choices A and B, but ultimately chose B.

My reasoning was that B eliminated an alternative cause, therefore strengthening that the increase in Sales was a result of the Change in policy. But if I look a little more beyond, I understand why it was an opposite answer.

[Jonathan Evans]

Thank you for sharing your analysis, Alxphm!

Yes, I notice that sometimes I read answer choices as "what I want them to say" rather than "what they do say." In this case, I would overlook the "not" in (B) and think that had what I wanted.

This is a particular danger in "opposite answers" because such answers seem relevant and effective.

To avoid such mistakes, read every word in answer choices and remember to focus on the conclusion. What exactly is the author arguing for? What effect does the statement in this answer have?

Please follow up with more questions!

[mN2mmvf]

I really struggled on this question between choices (A), (D), and (E).

For (D), why might not this choice help us understand that the sales increase resulted from the change in policy? If all of the competitors were offering free shipping, and the company held out and held out, and then finally joined its competitors, only to see a quick increase in sales, that would seem to strengthen the idea that it was the policy change that caused the increase.

For (E), if most companies offer free shipping only for orders above $50, then our company is potentially creating a competitive advantage by extending it to all purchases (and everyone loves free shipping). If the policy changes and then suddenly sales increase, it seems to me that knowing that the policy was a source of competitive advantage makes it likelier that the policy caused the increase.

I understand the rationale for (A), and considered that choice too. Ultimately I went with (D), but that was more or less at random.

[Adam Tyson]

Hey mN2mmvf, happy to help here.

Answer D requires assuming that for the competition, free shipping has been a good thing, and that customers have been using the competition only because of that policy. That's way too much outside help! If you have to exercise your imagination that much (they held out and held out sounds like we're telling ourselves a story, doesn't it? So does "a quick increase" - we don't know how ling it took, just when it started) then you are probably looking at a bad answer. Correct answers don't typically need much additional help or imagination - they provide new info that mostly speaks for itself.

Answer E likewise needs more imagination, like the idea that it is a competitive advantage and that everyone loves free shipping. That answer only deals with most companies, but are those the competition? Do the competitors fit into that majority, or are they in the minority with this company? Maybe nobody cares about free shipping, and the real cause it an improved website, a major advertising campaign, a hot new product, or a competitor going out of business and thus increasing their market share? Answer E doesn't eliminate an alternate cause, and isn't a very powerful example of where the cause is absent, the effect is absent, because we have no idea what the competition's sales are like.

Our official explanation describes answer A as providing a classic causal strengthen answer, one of "where the cause does not occur and the effect does not occur". That's accurate, but you can also look at it as eliminating an alternate cause, that of the market experiencing a general upswing. If the mail order market is decreasing, that lends strength to the claim that the policy here is what allowed them to buck that trend. There's more than one way to skin this causal cat!

Don't use too much imagination on these answers, mN2. They should stand, or fail, all on their own. When you start to "help" answers you are falling right into the traps set for you by the authors of the test. Don't go there!

[mN2mmvf]

Thanks, Adam. The difficult weaken/strengthen questions are my worst question type because they seem to most permit my imagination to wander. There are so many questions, it seems like, for which the answer is extremely weak and make only the mere possibility of a argument somewhat more/less likely...thus, I imagine X, Y, or Z and justify it to myself by saying, "well, this is possible, and the possibility means it could strengthen/weaken however slightly."

[nicholaspavic]

Hi nM2,

I love this question, because it's one that comes up often for so many students of the LSAT. Strengthening/Weakening questions are obviously a love of the LSAC. They test our understanding of logic and causality, subjects which today, often get set aside in public debates in the media and politics. But they are still actively embraced in the legal community. As a lawyer, you will be constantly asked to strengthen and weaken arguments. It is lawyer's bread and butter. So love it and accept it into your heart. It is also a skill that is absolutely demanded in law school. Every student will be asked to assess and reassess their understanding of a given legal issue by attacking and defending positions. And yes, law students learn to refine their views as each crazy possibility is raised and considered in the classroom. That's one of the best things in law school by the way!

But going back to the LSAT for a moment, we can strengthen a claim really only in the five ways defined in our books. For this specific question, where there was no cause and there was no effect, that answer should pop to you when it's offered. When you know the five reasons like the back of your hand, its simplicity is just tremendous. Remember, if you would have to write even 3 sentences explaining your jumps as to why an answer is correct for this type of question, it is probably a wrong answer. So simplify your life! Memorize those five ways and learn to effortly recognize them on this test and in your life as a law student. It's really the only way.

Thanks for giving me the chance to share this with you and I hope it helps.

[mN2mmvf]

Thanks Nicholas. I hadn't been systematically applying that list before (they all just seemed so obvious) but I will start doing so. Thank you!