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- Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:24 am
#36417
Complete Question Explanation
Flaw in the Reasoning—CE. The correct answer choice is (D)
The stimulus begins by presenting a statement indicating that insuffi cient rain can cause crops to
falter and prices to rise. Then the author proceeds to state that in a recent crisis a nation experienced
rising prices and faltering crops (which led to government intervention). Finally, the author draws a
causal conclusion indicating that weather must have played a role in causing the crisis.
The abstract form of this argument is, “A can cause B. B occurred, so A must have caused B.”
As with all causal conclusions, this one is suspect because there is the possibility that other causes
created the effect, or that there is no causal relationship at all. There is also another error in the
argument because the stimulus only states that insuffi cient rain is possibly a cause for faltering crops
and rising prices. The conclusion is that, in this case, weather must have played a role, or was the
cause, even though the premises neither state that weather has to be the cause, nor give any reason to
believe that some other factor (insects, perhaps) could not cause crop failure as well.
Since you are asked to identify a fl aw, and the stimulus features causal reasoning, remember to look
for answer choices that use the word cause or effect, as those answers are much more likely to be
correct. In this case, only answer choices (A) and (D) contain those words, and you should seek and
attack those answer choices.
Answer choice (A): The stimulus seeks to conclude that insuffi cient rain occurred, and does not start
from the premise that insuffi cient rain occurs. This response, which confuses the conclusion with a
premise, is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): Since the argument is not about whether the government was justifi ed in its
efforts to prevent starvation, this answer choice is off-topic. Furthermore, the severity of the crisis is
not clearly related to the cause of the crisis.
Answer choice (C): This answer describes a fl aw known as the Uncertain Use of a Term. However,
“crisis” is not used differently in two separate contexts. Each use of the term refers very clearly to
the crisis involving faltering crops and rising prices. This response attempts to respond to a political
dimension that may exist in the test taker’s mind, but certainly does not exist in the stimulus, and this
choice is wrong.
Answer choice (D): This is the correct answer choice. The argument infers that because
insuffi cient rain is a possible cause, it is in this case the defi nite cause, and that unsupported shift
from possibility to certainty is a fl aw.
Answer choice (E): This answer describes an error of conditional reasoning, not an error of causal
reasoning.
Flaw in the Reasoning—CE. The correct answer choice is (D)
The stimulus begins by presenting a statement indicating that insuffi cient rain can cause crops to
falter and prices to rise. Then the author proceeds to state that in a recent crisis a nation experienced
rising prices and faltering crops (which led to government intervention). Finally, the author draws a
causal conclusion indicating that weather must have played a role in causing the crisis.
The abstract form of this argument is, “A can cause B. B occurred, so A must have caused B.”
As with all causal conclusions, this one is suspect because there is the possibility that other causes
created the effect, or that there is no causal relationship at all. There is also another error in the
argument because the stimulus only states that insuffi cient rain is possibly a cause for faltering crops
and rising prices. The conclusion is that, in this case, weather must have played a role, or was the
cause, even though the premises neither state that weather has to be the cause, nor give any reason to
believe that some other factor (insects, perhaps) could not cause crop failure as well.
Since you are asked to identify a fl aw, and the stimulus features causal reasoning, remember to look
for answer choices that use the word cause or effect, as those answers are much more likely to be
correct. In this case, only answer choices (A) and (D) contain those words, and you should seek and
attack those answer choices.
Answer choice (A): The stimulus seeks to conclude that insuffi cient rain occurred, and does not start
from the premise that insuffi cient rain occurs. This response, which confuses the conclusion with a
premise, is incorrect.
Answer choice (B): Since the argument is not about whether the government was justifi ed in its
efforts to prevent starvation, this answer choice is off-topic. Furthermore, the severity of the crisis is
not clearly related to the cause of the crisis.
Answer choice (C): This answer describes a fl aw known as the Uncertain Use of a Term. However,
“crisis” is not used differently in two separate contexts. Each use of the term refers very clearly to
the crisis involving faltering crops and rising prices. This response attempts to respond to a political
dimension that may exist in the test taker’s mind, but certainly does not exist in the stimulus, and this
choice is wrong.
Answer choice (D): This is the correct answer choice. The argument infers that because
insuffi cient rain is a possible cause, it is in this case the defi nite cause, and that unsupported shift
from possibility to certainty is a fl aw.
Answer choice (E): This answer describes an error of conditional reasoning, not an error of causal
reasoning.