June LSAT Takers: Will Tuesday or Wednesday be Grey Day?

[Dave Killoran]

Title: June LSAT Takers: Will Today or Tomorrow Be Grey Day?
Posted: Thursday Evening, June 29th

We are variously asked about score release chances for the June LSAT (namely, could they occur today or tomorrow, or this weekend), and so I wanted to take a moment to address some of those thoughts.

Elsewhere, my colleague Jon Denning posted an analysis of the chances of release over the next week:

This is my rough probability breakdown, assuming scores are released before the official date (note these are strictly my own and don't necessarily reflect the feelings/beliefs of other PowerScore people):

Today: 1%
Friday: 4%
Weekend: 10%
Monday: 35%
Tuesday the 4th: 10%
Wednesday: 40%

I largely agree with him although I'd personally say (and have said earlier today on Twitter) that the chances today and tomorrow are even less. You may have seen a lot of discussion elsewhere about release dates and holiday possibilities (especially Monday), and I'd agree Monday is a legitimate possibility for score release. Without going too deeply into the numbers, a few thoughts:

The last three June LSATs have been released 22-23-22 days after the test itself. There's no rule that says they have to stick in that range (and indeed they've done fewer days, such as 19 after the October 2015 LSAT), but more often than not it's more 21 or 22 days (last nine release dates, counted in days from the LSAT: 23-23-19-30-23-22-25-31-24). So, 21 or 22 days is on the lower side, and it's worth noting that the October 2015release date affected registration for the December LSAT, so there were special incentives to get the scores out. There are no such incentives at the moment, other than maybe wanting to get scores out the door prior to July 4th (which isn't that high of an incentive internally—pushing past holidays has never been an issue for them). So, 21 days after the LSAT is July 3rd and 22 days is July 4th. This is why for the past few days I've said I don't see them coming today or tomorrow, and additionally I've have heard no early warning that they'd be coming.

The other consideration is that in the past year and a half, there's been a notable change relatively recently in the score release process, particularly the pattern of the "earlyness" of the release dates. Whereas in years past you'd see scores come out 4, 5, 6, 7 days or more early, that seemed to stop about a year and a half ago, and since then the release has been 1-3-2-1-1-2 days early. It's like they flipped a switch, and suddenly score release was later than before. In my opinion, this has to do with some external factors that are affecting their internal processes (some of which I touched on here: Why LSAT Registration Deadlines Are Earlier Than Ever) and thus we're seeing effects of internal policies that are very hard to gauge but show early signs of delaying results in general.

Given the above, some might say there's no chance we'll see scores before Monday. I personally think the chances are very low, but there is precedent for weekend/holiday releases:

• February 2010 LSAT released on a Saturday, 2 days early.
  October 2010 LSAT released on a Saturday, 2 days early.
  February 2014 LSAT released on a Sunday, 3 days early.
  December 2014 LSAT released on New Year's Day: Thursday, Jan 1st, 4 days early.

There's also history with the June LSAT itself always coming out before July 4th. But, that history in recent years was with June LSATs that were earlier in the month (last three June dates: 9th, 8th, and 6th) whereas this LSAT was on the 12th. With the recent policy change to later releases and the late date of this LSAT, I see those two factors as having a big effect on pushing this back, and making today or tomorrow unlikely. But, as always, I hope I'm totally wrong and that they show up here in a few minutes

I'll add a few more thoughts to this tomorrow, but for now I wouldn't worry about checking your LSAC account any time soon!

Thanks!

[Dave Killoran]

Title: June LSAT Takers: Will This Weekend Be Grey Day?
Posted: Saturday Afternoon, July 1st

In response to a number of requests, earlier today I posted some speculative chances on when the June LSAT score release might happen:

Immediately thereafter I noted that probably the weekend chances were a bit high. We know from my the post above that they have released on the weekend before, so why would they be so low this time around? Part of the reason is that at the moment the urgency to get scores out is relatively low. You can make a good case that this is the LSAT where fast release is the least important to law schools, and as I've said many times before, the law schools are the real clients of LSAC, not any of us (which seems totally backwards, but that's how it is). Here's how I see the urgency factor affecting LSAC:

• In February the law schools want scores fast so they can start making decisions as soon as possible (and every day counts during the spring admissions stretch).
  
  In June, the pressure is off (but still there are some decisions being made without question).
  
  September/October is an exam where it's important get scores back asap so students can make decisions about taking the December LSAT, and that's also true for December (and again, law schools want those December scores as soon as they open up again after New Years).

In other words, the usual urgency to get scores out asap is less now that at any other time, and thus I personally feel that a weekend release is very unlikely, especially one somewhat connected to a major American holiday.

On Monday, I'd bet that although offices are supposedly closed, they might have backroom staff coming in while closed to the public. This is why chances jump up on Monday. Tuesday they plunge again due to the holiday and the general lack of urgency (which makes Tuesday much different than the New Year's day release for the December 2014 LSAT).

As always when it comes to LSAT score release predictions, I hope I'm completely wrong and scores show up asap!

[Dave Killoran]

Title: June LSAT Takers: Will Monday or Wednesday be Grey Day?
Posted: Sunday Evening, July 2nd

Given the relatively late hour on the East Coast (11:00 PM) compared to prior score release times, I'd say we can confidently close the book on LSAT scores coming out today or tonight. As noted above, this isn't a surprise at all. I felt there was little to no incentive for LSAC to get scores out the door this weekend, and unfortunately that proved accurate.

Tomorrow a new week dawns, albeit one with a major US holiday sitting awkwardly on Tuesday. I don't think Tuesday is a very likely release date given the holiday, so I'm going to focus on Monday and Wednesday as the two realistic possibilities for score release prior to the stated date of Thursday.


Monday: This is a legitimate possibility and surely has a nearly equal chance with Wednesday. A big key is whether LSAC is open for regular, non-call center business. Meaning, are the full-time office employees there? I make a differentiation here because the call center employees will not be in since LSAC made a prior announcement that they'd be closed for communication. If the regular office employees are in, I'd say the chance of Monday rises considerably. I'll be checking that out in the morning, and hopefully we can make some sort of determination early on.

Monday is also 21 days after the LSAT, and we know the last three June releases have been 22-23-22 days after the administration of the LSAT, so it's a shade early (although still in a reasonable range). But with July 4th being 22 days, if LSAC is fully closed tomorrow, Monday becomes less likely. Thus, our current percentages stands slightly less than Wednesday.


Wednesday:

• This was our original prediction

, and we're sticking with it for now (it's partially about who is in the office at LSAC on Monday). As noted above, the last three June releases have been 22-23-22 days after the administration of the LSAT, and Wednesday is 23 days after this LSAT. The big knock on Wednesday? The last time LSAT scores were released after the 4th was the early 2000s, I believe. But as mentioned above, this is a new cycle that has been trending toward very late release (only 1-3-2-1-1-2 days early for the recent tests) and thus one day early would be no surprise whatsoever.

So, without knowing anything about Monday's internal LSAC schedule yet, the overall chances of release before Thursday look like this:

Monday, 7/3: 45%
Tuesday, 7/4: 5%
Wednesday, 7/5: 50%

But Monday could change if we find that although LSAC telephones are closed, the office staff is in. As soon as I know that, I'll update. Thanks and fingers crossed that scores come as soon as possible!

[france2489]

Any news on if the LSAC backroom office is working today?

[Dave Killoran]

No indication so far that anyone is in. Still checking though...

[Dave Killoran]

Title: June LSAT Takers: Will Tuesday or Wednesday be Grey Day?
Posted: Monday Evening, July 3rd

Now that we are past 8 PM on the East Coast with no LSAT #greyday in sight, let's talk about the next few days in detail:

• Tuesday, July 4th: This is a major American holiday, and it seems anti-American for LSAC to release scores on such a day. Then again, I previously thought that about New Year's Day, and indeed a few years ago they released scores then. So is it realistic to think that LSAC might drop scores tomorrow? In a word, yes. We don't think it's a great chance, and so we've assigned it about a 15% chance. But it would be kind of very LSAC-y to release them on the holiday. I truly hope they don't do it.
  
  Wednesday, July 5th: This was our original prediction, and we've held firm to it along the way. Our money is still on Wednesday, and the chances here are the highest, at 85%. It covers all the bases by not being a holiday, by being 23 days after the LSAT (within the 22-23 days window of recent June LSATs), and it's still one day early (in line with recent releases which have been close to the announced date).
  
  Thursday, July 6th: This is the official release date as announced by LSAC, and we've ignored it for the most part since LSAT scores have always come out early except for a single instance, and that was when Newtown was slammed by a massive and devastating storm. And even then they were only one day late! I keep waiting for the day that LSAC starts sticking to the announced date, but as explained above, they have a strong incentive to get scores out earlier when possible. So, until they start showing us that the date they say is the date scores come out, we'll keep ignoring it. But one day that will happen (or the test will go electronic and the whole score release issue will change drastically). For now, it's not that Thursday is impossible, it's just that we aren't figuring it in at all; we're instead looking at the chances of the test being released early, just like it always has been.

So there you have it, and the overall chances of score release stand at:

• Tuesday, July 4th: 15% (don't do it LSAC; you don't want that kind of backlash and un-Americanism* on your record)
  
  Wednesday, July 5th: 85% (since this was our original prediction, we sometimes wonder if that alone makes LSAC pick a different day. We hope not)

*Note to our Canadian friends: we know that for your sake tomorrow would be best but we hope you'll give us a pass here. Plus, you already were able to enjoy Canada Day this past weekend without dealing with scores so we think you'll understand!

Thanks!

[ctaylor108]

I've been doing great not worrying...until now. Time to refresh my life away....

[baycop21]

They're here, looks like I will be studying again for the next test.

[Dave Killoran]

And, as we had predicted from day one, LSAT scores were released today, so the long wait is over!

Best wishes to all on exceeding your goals