#25 - Inflation rates will not stabilize unless the rate of

[Administrator]

Complete Question Explanation

Parallel Reasoning-SN. The correct answer choice is (D)

The argument in the stimulus can be summarized as follows:

• Premise (1): Stable inflation decrease economic growth
  
  Premise (2): Decrease economic growth full cooperation
  
  Conclusion: Stable inflation is unlikely

Observant test-takers will notice that this argument contains a gap between the premises and the conclusion: for the conclusion to be true, we need to assume that the full cooperation of world leaders is unlikely in order to create a contrapositive chain:

• Full cooperation Decrease of economic growth Stable inflation

Even without diagramming the conditionality that underlies the argument here, you can use the conclusion test to quickly eliminate answer choices (A), (C), and (E).

Answer choice (A): The argument here contains no gaps between the premises and the conclusion, as the conclusion is presented as a conditional statement (safety improvement → employee cooperation). Had the author stated that it's overly optimistic to expect safety improvement, this would have been a better answer choice.

Answer choice (B): The logic here can be summarized as follows:

• Premise (1): Improving efficiency eliminate redundancy
  
  Premise (2): Eliminate redundancy dismiss senior employees
  
  Conclusion: Some senior employees will be dismissed

Even though the first two premises work together in the same way as they do in the stimulus, the conclusion presupposes the presence of the sufficient condition in the first premise, rather than the absence of the necessary condition in the second. Had the author concluded that it would be overly optimistic to expect improvement in management efficiency, this answer choice would have been correct.

Answer choice (C): The conclusion in this answer choice is conditional, not absolute. Furthermore, there are no logical gaps between the premises and the conclusion, as the combination of the two premises provide sufficient support for the conclusion:

• Premise (1): Optimal decision Thorough examination
  
  Premise (2): Thorough examination Presentation delayed
  
  Conclusion: Optimal decision Presentation delayed

Answer choice (D): This is the correct answer choice.

• Premise (1): Vehicle safety Objective tests
  
  Premise (2): Objective tests Cost overruns
  
  Conclusion: Vehicle safety is unlikely

Notice that both arguments conclude that the sufficient condition of the first premise is unlikely to be met. This observation alone can help you eliminate four of the five answer choices.

Answer choice (E): The conclusion test can be used to quickly eliminate this answer choice, since an imperative about a certain course of action ("we must not report our poor performance") will never match an objective observation about the likelihood of a given outcome ("it would be overly optimistic to expect stable inflation rates").

[mpoulson]

Hello,

I have read the analysis for this question, but it was insufficient for my specific question. The conclusion of the text uses the words "it would be overly optimistic to expect stable inflation rates in the near future. In my opinion this means unlikely but not impossible. The conclusion to answer D says "it is therefore unavoidable that the ... will not be optimal". Is this saying that optimal tests are impossible? If so, wouldn't that go a bit farther than the original conclusion. Please explain what makes these two conclusions the same.

- Micah

[Nikki Siclunov]

Hi Micah,

As far as the conclusion in answer choice (D) is concerned, you are correct in that the language used in that conclusion does not parallel 100% that in the stimulus; however, it is predicated upon the same unwarranted assumption, namely, that the necessary condition in our conditional chain cannot be satisfied. It is also important to simplify the language in both conclusions in order to realize that they are actually more analogous than they appear at first:

• Stimulus: It would be overly optimistic to expect stable inflation rates in the near future. In other words, inflation rates will not be stable in the near future.
  
  Answer choice (D): It is unavoidable that the level of vehicle safety will not be optimal. In other words, vehicles will not be optimally safe.

I do think that the level of certainty in answer choice (D) is quite close to that in the stimulus; and even if I'm wrong about that, answer choice (D) is much better than the rest. Answer choice (E) is the second best answer, as its conclusion is also predicated upon the same sort of an assumption. However, the conclusion in (E) is a principle, i.e. imperative claim (we must do something), whereas the conclusion in the original argument is a factual claim. This is an important distinction, immediately rendering answer choice (E) incorrect.

Hope this helps! Let me know.

Thanks,

[cherisefay]

I had the same question as Micah.

In your response to his question, you claim that the two conclusions are actually more similar than they appear and kindly reworded them to help showcase this. Could you say that since both conclusions are referring to the possibility of something occurring in the 'future' they inherently cannot be absolute statements?

I guess what I am getting at is although the language in the conclusion of (E) sounds more absolute on the surface (i.e "it is unavoidable") than the stimulus' conclusion, because of its future tense we can safely assume that the possibility of avoidance is still on the table, because technically we cannot predict the future.

Does this make sense?

[James Finch]

Hi Cherise,

The conclusion in both the stimulus and answer choice (D) both rely upon assumptions being made about a necessary condition of their arguments being false, but the actual conditional reasoning is the same. Here, those assumptions have slightly different scopes: in the stimulus, world leaders cannot be expected to fully cooperate in the near future, while in (D) there will absolutely not be huge cost overruns.

When the correct choice differs slightly from the stimulus, the LSAT makers will account for that in the question stem. Here they ask which answer choice "most closely" parallels the reasoning in the stimulus. Don't let that trip you up: focus on the structure of the argument, and look at whether each element from the stimulus is present or not, and whether the validity remains the same. (D) retains the exact structure as the stimulus and retains the same validity, dependent upon an assumption that negates a necessary condition.

Hope that clears things up!