LR Problem Set #1, Q: 47

[moshei24]

Hi!

I'm a bit confused by this question. The stimulus is talking about the incumbent being penalized, while the answer is talking about the parties being penalized. Can you explain this question to me?

Thanks!

[Steve Stein]

Hi Moshe,

It would be helpful to know how you understood this stimulus--how did you go about breaking it down, and what answer choices did you find appealing?

Thanks!

~Steve

[moshei24]

P1: Major Political Scandal (MPS) + Voters Blame All Parties Equally --> Incumbents Returned to Office
P2: MPS + Voters Blame One Party -->Incumbents from that party NOT Returned to OfficE
P3: Proportion of Incumbents Seeking Reelection is High and Constant from Election to Election (Does high mean more than half?)

I chose (C) because if they are likely to lose, they shouldn't seek reelection, and if they do, they don't get put back. I had very little confidence in this answer.

I think my light bulb just turned on an I see why (E) works.

In the stimulus, only the parties are being blamed; the incumbents are not being blamed, so an assumption would be that the parties are more responsible than the incumbents are in these cases (that would be the correct assumption, right?).

So in P1, since both parties are blamed, it's not possible to punish them, because one has to win. So the incumbent gets back in office, because you can't really punish anyone because they can't both lose.

But in P2, where only one party is blamed, that party gets penalized, because they could lose with the other, non-blamed party, winning.

Thanks!