#17 - An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that

[ellenb]

Dear Powerscore,

For this question, I chose b, I know the right answer is D, I just want to know why b is wrong and why D is right.


Thanks

Ellen

[Steve Stein]

Hey ellenb,

Thanks for your question--it would be helpful to know your approach to that one--not just which answer you chose, but how you broke down the stimulus; did you prephrase an answer?

Let me know--thanks!

~Steve

[ellenb]

I was looking for a statement that would say that what people actually say the will do they end up doing and it looked like B.

Thanks in advance.

[Steve Stein]

Hi ellenb,

Thanks for your response. In many cases it can be very helpful to break down an argument into its component parts. In this case, let's take a look at the evidence for the claim, and the conclusion based on that evidence:

Premise: 59% of voters think that the controlling party will be defeated.
Conclusion: Voters would generally welcome the defeat of the controlling party.

So, based on the fact that most people think the party will be ousted, the author concludes that the people welcome this outcome.

To strengthen this argument, the correct answer choice should equate expectation of an outcome with being in favor of that outcome. That is what correct answer choice D provides.

I hope that's helpful! Please let me know whether this is clear--thanks!

~Steve

[ellenb]

So, in other words, D is saying if I expect something to happen, I am actually in favor of that.

Or using the words of the author,

the proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized (expect)

can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized. (are actually in favor)

The confusing part is the wording "can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters " can we say, these can constitute?

and why is B wrong?

thanks in advance!

[Steve Stein]

Thanks for your response. You've got it: it would strengthen the argument if the portion of voters who expect a certain outcome could be used to approximate the portion of voters in favor of that out come.

The problem with B is this: In the stimulus, the author uses the respondents' opinions about likely outcomes, to draw a conclusion about voter sentiment regarding the party. This choice has it the other way around, with the principle that voter sentiment can be used as a basis to draw conclusions about likely outcomes.

Tricky! Let me know whether this is any clearer--thanks!

~Steve

[Franny_i]

Hi all,

So re-reading this I can pretty much understand why D is right, but I picked A because of similar reasoning to why D is correct. Is A wrong because of the extra bit at the end (barring unforseeable political developments)? If not that, then I feel it supports the conclusion in a similar way to D. Perhaps someone could clarify for me?

[Malila Robinson]

Hi Franny_i,
Answer A states: "The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments."

But when we look back at what "feel" (in bold above) in Answer A is referring to we get: "...59 percent of Grandburg’s registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year’s city council elections." So Answer A is saying that the voters will continue to feel that the party will be out of power after the next election. But that doesn't get us to the editorial's conclusion that "...voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control". It could, for example, be the case that these voters want to keep the current political party in power but, due to ongoing political scandals within that party, it is likely that the party will be forced out.

What we need is an answer that will provide a link from voter expectations to voter reality, and that is what Answer D does.
Hope that helps!
-Malila