#18 - In a poll of a representative sample of a province’s

[Administrator]

Complete Question Explanation

Flaw in the Reasoning. The correct answer choice is (E)

This stimulus presents a poll of the residents of a province, in which the provincial capital is the city most often selected as the best place to live. The capital is also the largest city in the province, and the writer’s conclusion is that the poll reflects a majority preference among respondents for large cities in general. This flawed reasoning presumes that it was the size of the capital city that was so appealing to respondents, in spite of the fact that other factors might have come into play (access to goods and services would likely be greater in a capital city, for example). Further, looking exclusively at the “winner” of the poll doesn’t tell us much about the voting—only that that one capital city got more votes than any other single city.

The question asks us to identify a vulnerability of the argument. While there may have been more respondents who chose the capital than any other town, this is not sufficient to conclude that most respondents would prefer large towns to small ones.

Answer choice (A): The stimulus concerns residents of this province. What residents of other provinces believe is irrelevant to the argument.

Answer choice (B): This is not a comparative poll. What occurs in other provinces is totally irrelevant to this poll, this province, and the author’s conclusion.

Answer choice (C): This is not a weakness—that is exactly what this poll is seeking to measure: what city residents of a particular province consider the best place to live.

Answer choice (D): The flaw in the stimulus does not involve a misinterpretation of what drove respondents’ preferences. Again, the flaw: just because the capital city received more votes than any other single city does not mean that there was a preference for larger cities in general.

Answer choice (E): This is the correct answer choice. This choice reflects the flaw in the interpretation of the survey. While the capital city did receive more votes than any other single city, this does not necessarily mean that large cities received more votes in total than small cities.

[voodoochild]

Premise states that the capital city was chosen "most often" - doesn't it mean that greater than 50% of people chose the capital city? I am not sure why D is incorrect.

I am a bit confused. Please help.

[Steve Stein]

Hey Voodoo,

If one hundred people were surveyed regarding their favorite book, the most popular book--the one chosen "most often"--may have had only two votes, if the 98 other people surveyed each had their own individual favorite.

I hope that's helpful--the way they reference numbers on these tests can be tricky. Let me know whether this is clear--thanks!

~Steve

[voodoochild]

ok. thanks Steve. I thought that chosen "most often" means chosen by "most" people. I thought that there is no difference between "a majority of Chinese" and "most of Chinese." I am a bit confused.

If I say that China was chosen most often --- does it mean that majority chose China OR that most of the people (>50%) chose China. This is really confusing. Can you please clarify a bit in detail?

[Steve Stein]

Hi Voodoo,

Thanks for your message. Think about a real-world situation, in which ten people were asked to list their favorite flavor. If chocolate got four votes, strawberry got three votes, vanilla got two votes, and chocolate chip got one vote, which flavor was the one that was chosen most often?

I hope that's helpful--let me know--thanks!

~Steve

[lsatbossintraining]

This is a subtle one!

Seems to me Voodoo is right about “most often” denoting a “majority”. That is, if 15 rap enthusiasts had to choose between their favorite rap artists and 5 said 2Pac, 3 said 50 Cent, 3 said Nas, 2 said Snoop Dogg and 2 said Jay-Z, then the rapper most often selected - or the one one with the majority of votes - is clearly 2Pac with 5 votes.

To bring that example under this question’s flaw, we can’t however assume that, of the rap enthusiasts polled, most consider 2Pac their favorite just because he received more votes than any other single rapper. In fact, most of the other enthusiasts - 10 to be exact - voted for other rappers.

Am I making sense here?

Many thanks,
Kyle

[KelseyWoods]

Hi Kyle!

You're on the right track here, but I think there's some confusion over the term "majority"--which is understandable! So I want to make sure we're talking about the same concepts here.

An absolute majority would be greater than 50%. In your example, 2Pac didn't get an absolute majority of the votes. There were 15 votes up for grabs and 2Pac only got 5 of them, or around 33% of the votes. What he got was a relative majority (also known as a simple majority or a plurality), meaning he received more votes relative to everyone else, but still not the over half of votes that would constitute an absolute majority. So 2Pac was chosen most often because he got more votes than anyone else, but he still wasn't chosen by most people. Most people (10/15) voted for someone else!

Let me amend your example a little to even better align it with the flaw in the stimulus. Instead of asking for favorite rap artist, let's say you just asked favorite musical artist, regardless of genre. And let's say the votes were: 5 for 2Pac, 3 for 50 Cent, 3 for Nas, 2 for Snoop Dogg, 2 for Jay-Z, and 10 for Taylor Swift. In this case, Taylor Swift was selected most often (10 is more votes than anyone else). Could I then conclude that most people prefer pop music over rap? No! Because even though Taylor Swift was selected most often, most people (15/25) selected a rap artist as their favorite.

Hope this helps!

Best,
Kelsey

[SGD2021]

Hello, I understand why E is correct but I do not understand why answer choice D is incorrect. Can someone please elaborate on why D is incorrect (it seems to me it could have also been the answer)?

[Adam Tyson]

Answer D is wrong because it focuses on the wrong characteristic of the respondents, SGD2021. It doesn't matter why the people who liked small cities preferred them to large cities. We should be more concerned about the number of people who preferred small cities. Their reason for their preference isn't at issue here; it's just the fact of the majority's preference that is in question.