- Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:55 pm
#58141
Hi guys,
This question is tricky, because we a causal argument being made, which is unusual for an assumption question. The purported cause here is a focus on advertising the negative effects of a lifestyle choice leading to the effect of successfully convincing people not to make that lifestyle choice. The evidence for this casual relationship is the success of the campaign against smoking, which focuses on its negative effects. But all we have so far is correlation being shown, not actual causation; we're missing a control group that tells us what happens when the anti-smoking campaign focuses on positive effects of non-smoking. So the missing assumption will be one that makes the cause of the anti-smoking campaign's success its focus on the negative effects of smoking, and not some other possible cause.
To answer your questions-
Mizbuny: Answer choice (A) is ultimately irrelevant, because the stimulus isn't interested in how to make the exercise campaign as successful as the anti-smoking one, just more successful than it has already been. So our correct answer will show that changing the emphasis from positive effects of exercise to negative effects of not exercising will lead to more success, because that's how the anti-smoking campaign was successful.
Tae: This is exactly how causal reasoning needs to be looked at it stimuli: is there enough evidence to show causation? Do we have a control that shows us what happens when our purported cause isn't happening? Does the stimulus leave open the possibility of an alternate cause or reverse causation?
EM: As noted above, answer choice (D) helps close the logical gap needed to justify the conclusion by telling us what happens when the anti-smoking campaign emphasizes positive effects of non-smoking rather than negative effects of smoking. (E) ultimately fails because it doesn't tell us what the "health concerns" of the people who successfully quit smoking are--are they concerned with the negative effects of smoking, or rather the positive effects of not smoking? It's a tricky, seemingly minor distinction, but crucial given that the stimulus is trying to prove that focusing on one set of health effects is more successful than focusing on another.
Hope this helps!