Flaw

[hrhyoo]

Hi Powerscore,

Please tell me what is wrong with the following argument;

The only possible results are X, Y, or Z.
X is unlikely and Y is impossible.
Therefore, Z is going to be the result.

If there are only three possible results and you eliminate two, shouldn't the only one left to be most likely the result?

Thanks in advance.

H

[Dave Killoran]

Hi H,

The problem with the argument is in the force of your conclusion. You've concluded that Z is going to happen for sure, and that's too strong. The appropriate conclusion is that Z is likely to happen, and that's because there's still a chance X could occur. As long as X could occur, you can't say for sure Z is going to happen.

Thanks!

[hrhyoo]

Ooh, thanks a lot, Dave!