#4 - Conservationists have established land reserves to

[Administrator]

Complete Question Explanation

Must Be True. The correct answer choice is (A)

Answer choice (B) is incorrect because we do not know that the monarch butterflies will shorten their migration.

Answer choice (C) is incorrect because we do not know that the polar ice will melt and raise the sea level high enough to cause many plants and animals to go extinct (a Waterworld scenario).

Answer choice (D) seems likely to be true, but there is no information in the stimulus to support this answer choice.

Answer choice (E) is incorrect because we do not know that these animals will move to inhabit current agricultural areas.

Thus, by process of elimination, answer choice (A) is the correct answer choice. Note that these species depend upon the habitat currently contained within the protected areas. If global warming occurs as predicted, temperatures in the land reserve areas will increase, and the vegetation in those areas will no longer be able to grow. If the vegetation and temperature within a habitat changes, then the species that depends on that habitat will have to move. If this occurs, the land reserves will cease to serve their purpose.

[netherlands]

Hi there PS,

Another question for you- First, I chose the wrong answer for this one. I chose "B" and going back and looking at it I can understand how it is a weak answer choice " will succeed" and "shortening their migration" are super strong and superfluous information that I'm pretty sure alarmed me even as I was choosing it.

But, to me A leaves a lot of room for questioning. Maybe I'm not fully understanding the concept of land reserves. But how can we say that "land reserves" in general will lose their purpose?

It says that the "temperature within which various types of vegetation" will shift. So not all, right? And what's more - this issue seems to be aimed at land preserves that are preserving habitats threatened by environmental concerns. But can't there be land preserves that are established to stave off - say, construction? In which case - global warming may not heavily affect it and its purpose to much that the reserve is rendered useless.

I know that the Monarch butterflies was a habitat that needed preservation because of environmental changes - but I thought that was just an example.

I just feel like I can see why B was such a bad choice, but its hard for me to pin down A because it felt like it was saying all Land Reserves would lose purpose and that too sounded a little extreme.

Now that I'm reading it again - perhaps "however" should have been an indicator that there was a problem or counter to whatever preceded it and that what followed it was meant to be a threat to what preceded it?

[Nikki Siclunov]

Hi netherlands,

I like your train of thought: indeed, answer choice (A) leaves some wiggle room, if you will. But it is the most-likely-to-be-true answer out of the five. The question stem, however, does leave some room for ambiguity: "[the statements above] provide the most support for which one of the following?" That said, let me address the specific points you made:

1. The author defined conservation land reserves in the first sentence: they are meant to preserve the last remaining habitat for certain species whose survival depends on such habitat. This is the working definition of "conservation land reserves" for the purposes of this argument.

2. The author also defined the purpose of these reserves. So, if all temperature bands shift, then the climate in conservation land reserves will change. Consequently, they will no longer be able to help preserve the species that depend on them, i.e. they will cease to serve their purpose. Yes, I would have been happier if they said, "some conservation land reserves will cease to...", but such an answer choice does not exist.

One more thing: the information is the stimulus is sufficiently definitive to warrant definitive language in the correct answer choice. When compared to the other four answer choices, (A) describes a scenario that is the most likely to occur based on what we know. Of course, we have no idea how the butterflies will respond to these changes: will they succeed in surviving? Probably not, since their survival is said to depend on the existence of a particular type of land reserve.

Make sense?

[netherlands]

Hi there,

This makes sense. I think this is another example of me pinning down what is being asked of me "most-likely" to be true vs. must. And of course, I too would have loved if they'd put a "some" in there! But regardless, this is definitely a better choice than "B", because it really is impossible to try and assume something about butterfly migration succeeding in the future.

[oadeboy1]

I find the word choices used in the stimulus challenging to understand. The last sentence says

"If global warming occurs as predicted, however, the temperature bands within various types of vegetation can grow will shift into regions that are currently cooler.

How am I suppose to know the author is referring to land reserves?

[Dave Killoran]

Hi O,

Yes, they are actually forcing you to get that idea here in order to understand the stimulus. And I agree it's challenging! They would claim that the phrase "which various types of vegetation can grow will shift" is what connects you to the land. the temperature information in that sentence is what let's you know that those zones would shift. Definitely not easy to parse, and most people will want to pause for a moment there to process what they mean.

Interesting side note: the problem predicted here (in 1994) is actually occurring with monarchs right now, although the problem is far worse: the climate issues (combined with other factors) are threatening the entire population. So it's not a matter of them changing locations but of being wiped out entirely.

Thanks!

[haganskl]

Hello. Im afraid that I may have selected A for the wrong reason. I took the last sentence to mean that, if GWM occurs as predicted, the temp in which various types of vegetation can grow will shift into regions that are currently cooler, thereby establishing weather patterns in a different area sufficient enough to accommodate monarchs in winter (where the various types of vegetation can grow). Since this hypothetical would provide a different land area for monarchs than the land reserve currently preserved by the conservationist (no longer the last habitat), the land reserve will cease to serve its purpose. Even if, simultaneously, the region currently inhabited by the grove of trees in Mexico gets too warm to support the monarchs the land reserve would still cease to serve its purpose (since they dont current preserve the newly warmed area).
This was my reasoning. Did I complicate things?

[Paul Marsh]

Hey haganskl! I don't think you complicated things too much at all; your reasoning looks good to me!

When it comes to the last sentence of the stimulus, I think we can interpret how it combines with the rest of the stimulus in either one of two ways: 1) when global warming happens, the established land reserves won't be able to grow the right vegetation anymore and so those lands won't serve their purpose (this is what the original post in this thread suggests), or 2) after global warming happens, other (non-reserved) lands will now be able to grow the right vegetation and so the species' survival will no longer depend on those reserved lands and therefore those reserved lands cease to serve their purpose (this seems to be what your interpretation suggests).

With either of those two interpretations, Answer Choice (A) checks out. Nice job on this one!

[haganskl]

Thank you!

[catherineshi99]

Hi there!

I chose A just because it was the answer I hated the least but I had eliminated it as a contender initially and I still don't understand how it can be a correct answer.

The stimulus doesn't state that new land reserves can't be established or moved. So my thinking was that after the global warming occurs, the vegetation in current land reserves would shift to regions that are cooler, and then new land reserves could be established there or already established land reserves could be moved. In that case, even after global warming occurs as predicted, land reserves can continue to serve their purpose of preserving the last remaining habitat for certain species whose survival depends on the existence of such habitat, which invalidates answer A. Especially since, answer choice (A) doesn't say "established conservation land reserves will cease to serve their purpose", it just states land reserves in general.

Thanks!