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 Administrator
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#35654
Complete Question Explanation

Must Be True. The correct answer choice is (A)

Despite the testmakers’ efforts to obfuscate this stimulus, it consists fundamentally of a very simple
argument. The first premise can be represented as follows:

Widespread belief :arrow: Growth in government

The second premise is:

Growth in government :arrow: Economic disaster

The unstated conclusion which can be drawn from these premises is:

Widespread belief :arrow: Economic disaster.

There are several red herrings here (e.g., contrast the correct explanation for job loss with “personal
shortcoming” and referring to military invasion), but the argument is nothing more than a two-step
conditional inference and the correct answer is merely the conclusion of the argument.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. The testmakers’ final attempt to obfuscate
this argument occurs in the wording of this answer choice. The testmakers love to combine
reasonable statements (such as those in the stimulus) in a way that yields an apparently unreasonable
conclusion (such as this one). Without understanding the pattern of reasoning in the stimulus, it is
unlikely that a student would ever believe that increased knowledge of the causes of job loss could
lead to economic disaster. Thus, this answer is unlikely to be selected as a uninformed guess for an
inference question. But the stimulus makes it clear the indirect result of understanding job loss as the
result of impersonal social forces could lead to extensive government control of the economy and
economic disaster.

Answer choice (B): The stimulus argues that society would demand government protection against
impersonal social forces rather than believing in individual ability. Whether either approach is
reliable remains unknown.

Answer choice (C): This is an exaggeration of the author’s position. Just because extensive
government control would lead to disaster does not suggest that government should never interfere
with economic forces.

Answer choice (D): This answer does not reflect the contingent nature of the stimulus. “If the belief
were to become widespread” does not indicate that the author believes this condition has already
been met or that its effects are already occurring. We cannot infer answer choice (D) from the
stimulus.

Answer choice (E): As mentioned above, military invasions are a red herring. Their only purpose
in the stimulus is to provide information for a possible wrong answer choice. Furthermore, the
argument indicates that government control protects against invasions and would cause economic
disasters, so equating the two is unsupported by the stimulus.
 mpoulson
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#23715
Hello,

I don't understand how to arrive at Answer A from the text. I skipped this question because iIcouldn't determine how to effectively tackle it with the information provided. Reading through a second the other answers all seem wrong, but I didn't see how exactly to get to answer A. Thank you.

Respectfully,

Micah
 David Boyle
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#23801
mpoulson wrote:Hello,

I don't understand how to arrive at Answer A from the text. I skipped this question because iIcouldn't determine how to effectively tackle it with the information provided. Reading through a second the other answers all seem wrong, but I didn't see how exactly to get to answer A. Thank you.

Respectfully,

Micah

Hello Micah,

If you could offer some of your own reasoning on this issue, e.g., ways you think A could be correct and why, that might be helpful and offer focus for any reply. Thanks!

Hope this helps,
David
 Khodi7531
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#46139
Can someone help me reason how A could be correct when it references increased "knowledge" and not belief? Knowledge isn't even spoken about in the stimulus and anticipated exactly A, but with belief and not knowledge. I thought that was enough to get rid of it.


Help
 Adam Tyson
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#49919
The key to unlock that answer is in the author's aside - his parenthetical comment "which is surely correct." The author is telling us that impersonal societal forces actually are the causes of job loss. So the author is saying "if the truth were to become widely believed" in that first sentence. If a true belief would lead to economic disaster, then actual knowledge of that same truth would also lead to the same thing - if you know something is true, then you also believe that it is, right?

Here's an analogy: if I believe that I am going to get a large bonus at my job, I might plan a vacation based on believing that money will be coming my way. If I KNOW that I am getting that bonus, then, it is reasonable to expect that I will also plan that vacation, just I did when it was merely a belief rather than actual knowledge.
 HecubaElliot
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  • Joined: Sep 21, 2018
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#58188
I'm a bit confused by this question. I chose E. I felt that the "increased knowledge" element of A disqualified it, because it made it seem that A was backing the economist? I'm all confused. E seemed good because it was so innocuous, somehow. The economist does seem to believe that people should not feel responsibility for their job losses, as they're an effect of impersonal social forces...

Could someone chime in and help clarify this for me? I would be very grateful.
 Brook Miscoski
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#58207
Elliot,

This is a must be true question stem, so the answer will match with the stimulus.

You should not eliminate (A) for saying "increased knowledge." The stimulus considers what would happen if a "correct" belief became "widespread," so there is support in the stimulus for an answer that discusses "increased knowledge."

On the other hand, answer choice (E) mixes and matches different portions of the stimulus. "Job loss" and "military intervention" go together, but neither of them go with "economic disaster." There is support that people shouldn't feel responsible for losing a job, but that's as far as it goes.
User avatar
 Ian888
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#95227
I guess it makes sense that it is A, I don't like any of the answers to be honest. I picked E since it seemed the best out of a bad lot. My issue with A is that it seems like a stretch to classify beliefs as knowledge. Especially since the support for it is "surely correct". It just doesn't seem very good to me. I'm just here expressing my dissatisfaction with this answer that is all.
 Adam Tyson
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#95270
You're right that believing something isn't the same as knowing it, Ian888, but surely if you KNOW something is true, you will also believe that it is true, wouldn't you? Thus, if people KNEW that losing your job is a sign of impersonal forces, then there would be more demand for government intervention, and therefore (according to the author) we would get an economic disaster.

We don't have to believe that this economist is right about any of this. All we have to do is find something that is supported by the economist's position. That is, something that would seem likely to be true IF they were right. That's answer A for sure!
User avatar
 christinecwt
  • Posts: 74
  • Joined: May 09, 2022
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#97661
Hi Team - would anyone mind explaining we can't infer Answer Choice D from the stimulus? isn't that "there would be growth in the scoeital demand for more government control of the economy" mentioned in the passage? Thanks a lot!
Administrator wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:00 pm Complete Question Explanation

Must Be True. The correct answer choice is (A)

Despite the testmakers’ efforts to obfuscate this stimulus, it consists fundamentally of a very simple
argument. The first premise can be represented as follows:

Widespread belief :arrow: Growth in government

The second premise is:

Growth in government :arrow: Economic disaster

The unstated conclusion which can be drawn from these premises is:

Widespread belief :arrow: Economic disaster.

There are several red herrings here (e.g., contrast the correct explanation for job loss with “personal
shortcoming” and referring to military invasion), but the argument is nothing more than a two-step
conditional inference and the correct answer is merely the conclusion of the argument.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer choice. The testmakers’ final attempt to obfuscate
this argument occurs in the wording of this answer choice. The testmakers love to combine
reasonable statements (such as those in the stimulus) in a way that yields an apparently unreasonable
conclusion (such as this one). Without understanding the pattern of reasoning in the stimulus, it is
unlikely that a student would ever believe that increased knowledge of the causes of job loss could
lead to economic disaster. Thus, this answer is unlikely to be selected as a uninformed guess for an
inference question. But the stimulus makes it clear the indirect result of understanding job loss as the
result of impersonal social forces could lead to extensive government control of the economy and
economic disaster.

Answer choice (B): The stimulus argues that society would demand government protection against
impersonal social forces rather than believing in individual ability. Whether either approach is
reliable remains unknown.

Answer choice (C): This is an exaggeration of the author’s position. Just because extensive
government control would lead to disaster does not suggest that government should never interfere
with economic forces.

Answer choice (D): This answer does not reflect the contingent nature of the stimulus. “If the belief
were to become widespread” does not indicate that the author believes this condition has already
been met or that its effects are already occurring. We cannot infer answer choice (D) from the
stimulus.

Answer choice (E): As mentioned above, military invasions are a red herring. Their only purpose
in the stimulus is to provide information for a possible wrong answer choice. Furthermore, the
argument indicates that government control protects against invasions and would cause economic
disasters, so equating the two is unsupported by the stimulus.

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