- Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:33 pm
#99484
sofisofi,
Let's say I make two predictions in 2017:
"George H. W. Bush will serve a second term as the President of the United States."
and:
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as President of the United States."
George H. W. Bush died in 2018. So, a year after my prediction, my first prediction turned out to be incorrect. But Donald Trump is still alive - it's possible he may run for president again. So my second prediction has not yet turned out to be correct, but it may later turn out to be correct.
The economist in the stimulus is not claiming that their prediction is not correct yet, but may later turn out to be correct. The economist is pointing out that they didn't predict a recession absolutely, but they instead predicted a recession if certain things happened. The things didn't happen, so the prediction didn't really turn out right OR wrong - the prediction became moot when the conditions didn't happen.
Robert Carroll
